The emergence of the Yerminator and an unwritten future
Static electricity crackled through Glendale and a breeze kicked up from nowhere. A sphere of pure energy formed and a naked backup catcher appeared, walked out of the shower and got dressed for a spring training game, effectively telling a few players that he needed their jobs, and possibly their clothes. Jonathon Lucroy was released, Eloy Jimenez got hurt. Not because Yermin did anything to them but because the 28-year-old catcher and his fellow catcher Zack Collins made it harder to add Lucroy to the 40-man, and because Eloy hurting himself had joined death and taxes as an inevitability in life. But one shouldn’t rule out that Yermin had them…Yerminated.
It’s one week or so in, but Yermin Mercedes been the Sox best hitter and the regular DH. In his first home at-bat he went back-to-back with Yoan Moncada by sending a ball damn near 500 feet out to left. Yerminated.
And it hasn’t looked like a fluke. The 8-for-8 to start the season was something, but this hasn’t been a guy getting lucky or doing something he’s never done in the minors. Yermin was a .308 hitter with an .862 OPS across 11 seasons in the minors, independents, and anywhere that would have him. His hits have been in the form of mashing mistakes and getting wood on both fastballs and off speed stuff. He is still striking out and getting beat by good pitches like you do, but, he looks like a professional hitter. It could be sustainable.
If it is, there’s impact for 2021 and possibly beyond. There’s also sour grapes. Let’s start there and see if we can make wine outta whine.
The sour grapes is but one question on the vine: Where the hell was this guy last year???? He had one at-bat, where he walked. Meanwhile Ricky Renteria gave DH Edwin Encarnación 181 plate appearances and he did nothing with them. Yermin had hit in spring training and then in the summer camp. He had hit in 2019 at Charlotte and Birmingham. He wasn’t that much of a mystery. There’s no fault in Rick Hahn signing Encarnación, who had been a premiere DH, but it was clear by September that he wasn’t anymore. If Ricky had thrown Yermin in there for real to give them a jolt at the DH spot, would the team have struggled down the stretch as badly as they did or get bumped out at all against the A’s? Possibly, there was more going on than a bad DH. However there were two gaping holes in the lineup, as DH and RF were manned by guys that were struggling badly. Giving a spot to a guy that had a chance to hit the way Yermin has so far could have changed the outcome.
But that’s revisionist history and padding the word count. The best case scenario for the Sox in 2021 and beyond is that Yermin Mercedes establishes that he is, in fact, a bona fide major league hitter; that he is a viable starting DH; and that he helps the Sox get to the 2021 playoffs and helps offset the loss of Eloy Jimenez.
The worst-case scenario? Yermin slumps, he gets replaced in the lineup and heads back to AAA when they need a roster spot. But based on what he’s shown so far, that scenario would be just as astounding as his hot start.
Let’s assume Yermin stays in the lineup, but cools off and down to an above-average hitter, settling in at, say, Luke Voit circa 2019: 429 AB, .263 avg., 21 HR with an OPS of .842, OPS+ of 123. Voit is another late bloomer that has blossomed into a key hitter in a lineup with champion aspirations, so it’s a fair comp, though Yermin was a better hitter in the minors. That stat line could also be Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel or Zack Collins just as easily as Yermin. Basically, 2019 Voit is a solid floor for the White Sox DH/LF slot this season. Not Eloy, but you’d take those numbers as part of the lineup.
In the short term, to get there the pressure is squarely on Andrew Vaughn. He was supposed to be the chosen one, and he hasn’t hit. Sure, there’s pressure learning left field or whatever as far as excuses, but the fact is that he’s struggling badly. He’s sitting for Billy Hamilton and Nick Williams to start in left. When Adam Engel comes back, Engel belongs on the roster and could still outright claim the left field job. So someone has to go. Common sense says Nick Williams gets the heave-ho to make room for the Man of Steal, and unless Williams shows something right now, he will eventually be gone. Williams has pressure enough with this stint to show that the Phillies were wrong and he is an MLB player, not a AAA/AAAA guy. Tony will give him that chance, but Williams is really holding Billy Hamilton’s spot as the 26th man unless he proves otherwise. Vaughn and Engel should be the better options at the plate.
And as a player, Vaughn is not a 26th man; he’s a top prospect and expected starter. But Engel returning and playing, if Yermin is still hitting and Vaughn is not, leaves Vaughn on the bench. For playing time Vaughn would be behind Danny Mendick, who might be starting a lot in TA7’s absence because he is a better SS than Leury Garcia, who in turn would be ahead of Vaughn as a utility guy. Zack Collins is safe because Yermin has yet to take the field, meaning the Sox don’t trust the Yerminator’s defense or game calling, or both. That leaves Williams/Hamilton or Jake Lamb; and what has more value at the end of the bench, an average or better running left-handed hitting OF that can at least serve as a pinch runner, or a slow righty bat that isn’t hitting and can’t hardly field? Hamilton made the team because his speed and fielding make him useful in a part time role. Lamb is at least a backup 3B and could have already lost his spot to Danny Mendick if Danny plays well. Vaughn’s skills mean he should be in there just about every day and getting steady at-bats. Engel’s looming return gives Andrew Vaughn only a couple weeks to prove himself. If he still isn’t outhitting Yermin, then highly touted top prospect Andrew Vaughn really should go down to the minors and work it out there instead of rotting on the pine watching 28-year-old rookie Yermin Mercedes do his job.
Over the long haul, Yermin showing he’s real means the pressure is still on Andrew Vaughn and maaaaaayyyyybe Zack Collins. If Collins fails to hit or if Yermin somehow establishes himself defensively this year, Collins could be done. It feels unlikely that Yermin will be allowed to catch all that much and Collins has had some life to his bat. From the standpoint that Yermin is just a DH going forward, Vaughn needs to prove himself in the outfield to make sure that he has a spot (Adam Eaton’s) next year, and/or prove at the MLB level that he is the better hitter now than Yermin, Adam Engel, and maybe someone like Nick Williams or Gavin Sheets. Based on the pedigree, Vaughn should outpace all those guys at the plate. But if it goes Vaughn > Yermin > Eaton/Engel > The Rest, Vaughn has to play the outfield for the Sox to be best as a team. If it is Vaughn > Eaton/Engel > Yermin, Vaughn is safely the DH over Yermin, but with another issue. The problem beyond 2021 (and hopefully by September) is that Yermin, Vaughn and Eloy are all basically DH candidates. Frankly, going forward Vaughn does the Sox a huge solid if he becomes a serviceable outfielder. In the early going it’s been Schwarber levels of ok, but he needs to hit for any of it to matter.
By the end of the seaon and into the future, realistically The Sox can’t afford to have Eloy and Vaughn in the same outfield, even with Luis Robert between them. And continuing ti treat this all realistically, The Legend of the Yerminator is not as real as Eloy Jimenez or Andrew Vaughn’s skills. If, and that’s still an if, Yermin has arrived in the MLB and is here to stay, enjoy him now Sox fans because the best thing he can do besides getting them to the promised land is become trade bait in the offseason. And with the Universal DH coming, teams will be taking a good, long look to see if a Mercedes can drive them to the playoffs and Yerminate their competition. We will miss the wordplay, for sure.
IN CASE YOU HAVE FOMO
Trevor Bauer had multiple baseballs taken for analysis of foreign substances after his start against the A’s, per Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. As noted by Yahoo! Sports Ryan Young, Bauer had a 23-minute protest video on You Tube about the new efforts at enforcement/crackdown on doctoring the ball by claiming in part that the foreign substance could be from the catcher’s mitt or shin guards, the third baseman, a ball hit off the pine tar on the bat…yeah, Trevor, right. Because that’s what happens. If you were worried about the Sox not spending on Bauer, don’t. Just…don’t.
Also, George Springer is still hurt, so no worries there.
A Lineup’s worth of Things about the Sox that worry me, an ongoing list:
- The Bullpen, especially now that Matt Foster should have PTSD.
- Depth. In case you haven’t noticed how that’s going so far…
- Eloy’s recovery being hampered by trying to jump for objects on high shelves.
- Tony getting a feel for his bullpen leading to the bullpen being abused early.
- The toll of a balky hammy on Tim Anderson and Adam Engel, two guys that really need their legs and whose legs are really needed by the Sox.
- Dallas Keuchel needing a Sox defense that just isn’t there for him.
- Nick Madrigal’s elite contact skills being no match for having the exit velocity of a wet turd.
- Dylan Cease regressing to bad habits now that the games count.
- Hamstrings are falling way too fast.
- And warming up in the pen: Liam Hendriks being held back for save chances that never show up.
"Mismatched Sox - The Extra Sox in the Basement" 