Eloy is close. Luis is cleared to ramp up activity. The Adams Engel and Eaton are still hurt, and now Jake Lamb has a hurt shank. Yoan Moncada has a shoulder barking. Jose Abreu is beat up. Billy is back, but being limited somewhat. Nicky…poor little Nicky.
Following a very short season with a start/stop ramp up for those who played and no real baseball for those who weren’t in the MLB, the Sox and a lot of teams are seeing what happens when athletes are take off their routine. The season is also around the halfway point, with 81 games in the bag for some teams. It isn’t unheard of that after 81 games, guys are sore and hurt. Hell, a naked Lou Brown told us that in Major League.
But for a team with championship aspirations and a championship caliber team, the injuries are getting in the way. The offense is now hinging on three rookies (Mercedes, Vaughn and Sheets), a scrap-heap pickup in spring training (Hamilton), two utility guys (Mendick and Garcia), and really two regulars who are having lesser seasons than hoped (Anderson and Grandal). Everyone else is either out or fighting through pain. The Sox have been lucky that Andrew Vaughn is a good outfielder, but he’s hitting like a guy who never played above A-Ball. The Sox were lucky that Yermin started out hot, but he needs to adjust to a league that quickly adjusted to him. Gavin Sheets had a nice first game with the bat, but badly misplayed a ball at the wall and then battled but lost in his last AB against a Twins lefty (in keeping with Gavin’s AAA splits). It’s being pieced together, and the name Eduardo Escobar is the only rumored reinforcement. And the Diamondbacks are making the juice not worth the squeeze on him.
So can the Sox win without hitting homers and destroying pitchers as was intended? Can they fake it until Luis and Eloy come back to help them make it? Probably. You have to go back to 1989, but Tony LaRussa won the World Series with a team that had a good on base percentage but a mediocre slugging percentage. They were 10th in the AL in SLG, but 4th in OBP. The Sox entering play on Wednesday? 3rd in the AL in OBP, 9th in SLG. Does that mean anything? It isn’t a guarantee but you have a manager who won with a team that didn’t crush the ball so he has seen this before. And, if Eloy and Luis return to normal, and Abreu and Moncada get over injuries, then there will be some crushing down the stretch.
But homers help. The 2005 Sox hit a lot of them, and statistically they were below average overall offensively. In both scenarios, 1989 and 2005, pitching was the saving grace. In ’89, the A’s were 4th in WHIP and 2nd in ERA in the majors. In 2005, the Sox were 2nd in ERA and 4th in WHIP. In 2021, the Sox…are 7th in ERA and 10th in WHIP. But the margins are thin, .09 back in WHIP and .38 in ERA. If the pitching holds, the offense can get by without having big power.
Aye but there’s the rub. Will the pitching hold? As discussed on Wednesday’s show, at this point the starters have basically met or started exceeding their innings totals from last year. in 2020 Lance Lynn lead all of baseball with 84 innings. He’s at 78 as of Wednesday. Lucas Giolito only had 72.1 innings last year, already he’s pitched 93.2. But that’s every pitcher everywhere. It could explain some of the falloff of pitching around the league and the rise in offense. Or pitchers were using everything from spider tack to vagisil on the ball and the crackdown is working. Either way.
That aside, the bigger issue for the Sox is that Giolito, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodón have never topped 200 innings in a season. Rodón has a career high of 165 in 2016; Cease threw 124 in 2018 between A and AA; Giolito threw 176.2 in 2019 and 173.1 in 2018. If Giolito has 16 more starts in him at his current rate, he’ll top 180 at least. Not a far cry from 2018-2019, then he’ll have the playoffs. Cease averages about 5 innings a start, so if he hits 32 starts he’ll be adding 85 innings to his current 75.2 for a new high of 161 innings. That’s 40 more than he’s ever thrown, and he’s three seasons removed from that. Rodón is 5 years removed from throwing 165 innings, and he’s on pace for at least 180.1 innings.
Hopefully, Dallas Keuchel and Lance Lynn have it in them somewhere to get to at least 180 innings this year. Even though Keuchel only threw 112 in 2019, he’s hit 200 innings a few times in the past. Lynn as well. 180 would be a lower number than usual.
So assuming the Sox don’t overtax three of their starters, then the bullpen has to pick up the slack. Michael Kopech will help when he gets back. Ryan Burr will give up runs eventually, but if he can stick around he’ll help too. But the minors are thin with good performances, so other than a Jace Fry here or maybe a too-early promotion for Konnor Pilkington there, you’ll see more Evan Marshall blowups.
So try and outscore them? Out-pitch them? What are the 2021 White Sox going forward? Welcome to the fork in the road.
THE ROAD THEY OUGHT NOT TRAVEL
The simple truth about standing pat is that the pitching can’t do this all season. It feels like all the other teams have all had injuries to starters and the Sox have largely avoided that. Michael Kopech’s hammy is the biggest hurt for the pitching staff, and it may be a blessing because his innings would have been monitored more harshly down the stretch without this break. Rodón has a bad injury history, Giolito and Lynn are guys that are adjusting to new ways to up their spin rates, Cease relies on a lot of breaking stuff and somehow Keuchel seems safe. There’s real risk.
Offensively, standing pat is less terrifying but the bottom of the lineup will be weak. One more key injury and the team won’t be able to hang against a good pitcher. Two more and the Sox are more like the 2017 team than the 2020 version.
This fork is a forking bad idea. It is a dark path that smells weird and has torn underwear bands at the start of it. So ignore this one.
TWO ROADS TO GET TO THE PROMISED LAND
Fork 1: Bash ’em: Offensively the Sox need to add either two home run hitters (besides the injured guys) or add a higher on-base guy. Eddie Escobar has 17 homers thus far but isn’t getting on at a stellar rate. If the Sox can get him, they need to target Adam Duvall (17 HR), Mitch Haniger (17 HR), Joey Gallo (18 HR), or someone of that nature to go with Escobar. All are low-average power guys. Added to Eloy, Luis, Jose, Yas and Yoan, the power would be scary again even if Yoan’s shoulder, Eloy’s chest, and Jose’s multitudes are holding them back a bit. Or, stick with a high OBP base and target Jon Berti (2B-3B, Marlins), and then you get back to Joey Gallo, Adam Frazier and Brian Reynolds as other options. Really, if the Sox were to be able to splurge for Gallo they’d get the best of both worlds, but then if Escobar costs them too much what’ll the Rangers want?
Fork 2: Fool ’em: Pitching and more pitching. The Sox add a starter and go 6-man the rest of the way, and see who is fresh at the playoffs. The big target might be Jon Gray of the Rockies, and by big target that means every contender looking for a starter will come calling for the UFA toiling on a bad Rockies team. Kyle Gibson is under a reasonable $7 million for 2022, and the Rangers might be willing to part with him. Anyone want to know what the D-Backs want for Caleb Smith? Anyone want Merrill Kelly or MadBum? The Pirates and Orioles don’t have much in the rotation, and what they have makes sense for them to keep. Bullpen guys are mostly traded based on who is decent at the time of the deadline. Not surprisingly, there aren’t a plethora o’ pitchers present for the poaching.
The best investment might be to give in to a team to get more than a rental, and try and package to fill at least two holes. Of course, if teams are not interested in a struggling Jonathan Stiever, or a Blake Rutherford, or Micker Adolfo, the Sox need to weigh what they are losing for this year. A guy like Gallo, or Reynolds, or Frazier will be a high cost, but more worth it than Escobar if they can help during a longer window. Or if Escobar also yields Caleb Smith maybe that’s worth the cost. Trading, say, Jace Fry and Zack Collins leaves less bullpen depth and a hole behind Yas Grandal. If Yermin was a viable catcher, Collins wouldn’t be here, notwithstanding Yermin’s adventures in the 9th on Wednesday. Fry just came up, and will hopefully stick. To use that for Escobar and a starter might leave two more holes and make zero sense. Say the trade is Danny Mendick and Matt Foster as part of a package for Adam Frazier, Frazier obviates the need for Mendick but Foster could be missed even though he hasn’t been great. Now, make it Frazier and their closer Rich Rodriguez, add more prospects to the pile for Pittsburgh, and you have something because Frazier and Rodriguez could be upgrades in two areas. With so much talent for the Sox playing as rookies or hurt, trading position for position with sweeteners seems like common sense but isn’t always the path taken.
Part of the issue is whether there’s a team that can properly fill a 2B, OF/DH and pitching hole in one fell swoop. The Pirates have Frazier, Reynolds and Rodriguez. Their starting rotation is bad beyond J.T. Brubaker, who isn’t particularly great. The Rangers have Gallo, Gibson, Ian Kennedy (the closer), but their 2B brigade is the flailing Nick Solak and journeyman Brock Holt, with unproven Cuban Andy Ibanez. The Marlins have Duvall and Berti, but no starters that are obvious trade candidates and maybe an Anthony Bass as a reliever. The Rockies could send an OF, 2B and SP with names like Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, Garrett Hampson and Jon Gray…but Blackmon isn’t what he used to be and is very expensive through 2023, McMahon is terrible away from Coors and Hampson lost both his starting 2B and OF jobs this year.
But let’s swing big and try and fill three needs with one trade.
The Rangers trade SP Kyle Gibson, RP Ian Kennedy and OF Joey Gallo. It would cost maybe two players from the 26-man, likely a pitcher who can start this year or next year, and multiple prospects. If the Sox only needed to trade Jake Burger, Jonathan Stiever, Jace Fry, Adam Engel and two players to be named later it would be probably too cheap for the Rangers. The Sox would get added power and OBP from RF, allow Gavin Sheets to not field and DH or spell Jose at 1B to get him some rest, add a veteran high-leverage arm to the ‘pen and add an ace to a 6-man rotation. Hell of a trade, but Danny Mendick is still your 2B. There’s not much left to trade for a 2B.
The Rockies trade 2B/OF Garrett Hampson, RP Daniel Bard, and SP Jon Gray. The Sox might have a better shot at getting away with just prospects for this group. It might still cost them the likes of Burger or Stiever, but maybe a package around a guy like Adolfo makes sense for Colorado. The Sox get another versatile IF/OF in Hampson who has better overall numbers than Mendick, a closer/late-inning arm in Bard, and Gray as an added starter. The pitching improves but the hitting is still more or less where it is now.
The Pirates trade Brian Reynolds, Adam Frazier, and Rich Rodriguez. The Pirates could ask for way more than what the Rangers scenario or the Rockies scenario would be. Reynolds is the best player on the Pirates and only in his third year. Frazier was shopped in the offseason but he’s having a career year and his value is higher now than it would have been in March. Rodriguez isn’t really a young guy, but has been the best reliever on the team and has some team control left. This group might cost actual MLB players that the Sox don’t want to part with. But let’s say an MLB reliever with future upside like Garret Crochet, and at least 4 prospects from the Sox top 30 including one guy who steps into the Bucs’ lineup immediately. The problem becomes who…Jake Burger maybe? Gavin Sheets? The Sox would have a different look to their bullpen and a better lineup now and for a couple years. It is a dream scenario, but the Pirates may just hold Reynolds and/or Rodriguez for a godfather offer in the offseason, and the Sox will have competition for Frazier.
Most likely, the Sox get two or three trades with a couple teams, adding a reliever and one bat. If they add a bat, it will likely be at 2B where there’s a bigger hole to fill. If Jake Burger comes up and takes over there, then an OF/DH will be next. The thing to watch over the next few weeks is whether the team finds an identity away from homers, or whether the team flattens for lack of the long ball. If they become more like the ’89 A’s, then clamor for more pitching. In either case, the Sox need to pick a lane and try and win this year.
WHO FEARS THE TWINS???
Sox social media was afire with worries that the Cleveland Baseball Assemblage would catch the Sox as they scuffled…even though Cleveland is rubbing the bottom of the bottom of the barrel for starting pitching. The Twins had a nice little run, but the Sox put that to rest. The AL Central team that should start pissing fans off? The Tigers. 7-3 in their last ten. Some of their young guys like Akil Badoo and Tarik Skubal are figuring it out. The bullpen isn’t total trash. And to quote Goldberg, “They’re Next”.
R.I.P. MARTYL REINSDORF
Jerry and Martyl Reinsdorf were married in 1956. 65 years with someone is amazing. That type of loss is unimaginable. Condolences to the Chairman and his family.
"Mismatched Sox - The Extra Sox in the Basement" 