Trade deadline’ll be here in a week or so, and questions loom at the front offices on 35th and Shields. For one, will the Sox make a trade? For two, who will be coming here? For three, will they be here to stay beyond this year? Four for, wait…reverse that…will the rumors be true or will it be a surprise? For five, six, seven eight (cue music). Ok. No more TV theme songs. Well, one more underrated one.
The real question is what the Sox have left in the cupboards to pull off a trade. There are certainly talented guys in the minors, and trades often involve a player that you’ve never heard of as a casual fan (or business casual, maybe even semi-formal). As a point of reference, for every Dane Dunning traded to the Rangers, there’s an Austin Weems and the player to be named later, Martin Tadlo. You needed to be very well versed on Sox minor leaguers to know the name Austin Weems. If you claim to know who Martin Tadlo is, you’re that kind of jerk because he was made up mid-sentence and you need to stop pretending to know things.
Seriously though, it is absolutely fine as a fan to not have a grasp on the ID and value of every asset in the Sox farm system. But assuming that at the deadline a team would look for someone off the AA, AAA or MLB rosters there are certain guys that are untouchable, certain guys that it would take a major return to consider, and then there are just the guys that are dangling out there for the taking. So as fans we know that, for example, Liam Hendriks is not getting traded. It would make no sense to trade him, and even if the return was amazing it would be damn near impossible to think of what that would be. We can be reasonably sure that Dylan Cease isn’t getting traded unless it is for a top player under team control. Even then, probably not. But can you be sure that every guy on the roster is untouchable? No, you cannot. Let’s rank the guys that are touchable, then, limited to the 40-man/MLB Pipeline top 30.
UNTOUCHABLES
Eloy Jiminez, Luis Robert, Billy Hamilton, Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Nick Madrigal, Yoan Moncada, Liam Hendriks, Michael Kopech, Carlos Rodon, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito.
None of these guys would make sense to move because of their standing with the team and/or how few guys are out there that would replace their production. Someone like TA, Pito or Billy Hamilton are on here mainly because of their intangibles; there are shortstops that would be an upgrade, 1B/DH types a plenty at Jose’s level and Billy is a 4th/5th OF, but as fan favorites and guys that have become part of the heart of the team there’s really no way that Rick is trading them. These are guys that mean more to the Sox than anything they could get in return.
THE RETURN WOULD HAVE TO BE SOMETHING INSANE
Andrew Vaughn, Zack Collins, Dylan Cease, Aaron Bummer.
If the Pirates offered Adam Frazier, Rich Rodriguez and Brian Reynolds for one of these guys and a couple of guys you would need to look up, it would at least be a conversation. Collins is here mainly because he is going to be a bigger part of the lineup going forward and there isn’t much else ready to go behind the plate right now. Cease, Bummer and Vaughn are key guys but not quite at the next tier, though Cease and Vaughn are right on the edge. They are too integral to the plans to be actual trade bait, but if there was a Godfather offer that made the team significantly better now and for the next 3-5 years…just maybe you do it.
RIGHT CHIP, WRONG DIP
Gavin Sheets, Yermin Mercedes
Mercedes was a great story, then his image but it took a hit when he was sent down, but he was raking again at AAA, and now there’s the weird retirement talk. If he’s able to adjust to MLB pitching like he should, he’s a valuable asset. Given that the scuttlebutt is that he lost his mojo when Tony failed to back him up after the 3-0 dinger, maybe another team wants to roll the dice that his swag will come rushing back under a new manager. If he had waited until after the deadline, he’s intriguing. He could have been a callup anytime now through September 1. Then again, maybe this is forcing a trade, which could backfire or benefit. It is a weird situation.
Much more conventionally, Gavin Sheets is showing himself as that lefty power bat the lineup needs, but he’s unproven yet so you wonder if he’s the answer for 2021 and beyond. To give up on now him might ransom the future. He has to be held onto unless the right situation is presented, but then he’s not established enough to be untouchable and not on the level of Andrew Vaughn as a prospect. Just a tweener, where if he gets moved for fair value you’d understand but if they don’t have that lefty bat anywhere else you’d wonder what they’re thinking.
THE BAD CHIPS
Danny Mendick, Seby Zavala, Evan Marshall, Matt Foster, Dallas Keuchel, Luis Gonzalez, Reynaldo Lopez, Zack Burdi, Codi Heuer, Jose Ruiz.
These players have very limited to no trade value based on performance. Keuchel isn’t living up to the dollars he’s owed and that makes him a tough trade, though he’s useful and can hopefully get it going better. The rest of these guys just aren’t going to bring back much. Better to try and get them back to what they were for Heuer, Marshall and Foster, and the rest can just chill at AAA if not needed.
MIDDLIN’ VALUE CHIPS
Brian Goodwin, Jake Lamb, Jace Fry, Leury Garcia, Blake Rutherford, Jonathan Stiever, Tyler Johnson, Norge Vera, Ryan Burr, really most of the Charlotte Knights.
Goodwin and Lamb might have some trade value and if the Sox don’t need them, in Lamb’s case because of Gavin Sheets and in Goodwin’s case because Eloy and Luis coming back makes for a crowded OF situation. And yes, I think Eloy will be in the field. But You also have Vaughn, Engel, Hamilton and possibly Sheets in the mix.
But these are guys that someone could use, like a fringe contender (Reds) needing a SS/2B (Leury) and giving back a reliever (Sean Doolittle). Or an actual contender (Brewers) needing a lefty 3B option (Lamb) and reliever (Fry) and sending back a 2B (Luis Urias) for those two and a prospect sweetener. Not saying the teams would make those trades, but the idea is there.
In Goodwin’s case, he is both looking at being out of an OF rotation spot and Rick could be doing the guy a solid and getting something in return for a couple months of rebuilding the guy’s image across the league. Imagine the Braves or Yankees wanting Goodwin to try and salvage a decimated outfield and sending back a pitcher, even an organizational arm that maybe Ethan Katz can work over. Why not?
The Knights are generally populated this year by has-beens and prospects that are suspect, like Seby Zavala. Rutherford, notably, continues to underwhelm at the plate in spite of his pedigree as a prospect and both Stiever and Johnson have been bad.
Vera is in the Sox top-30 prospects but has not done anything yet here and would be just the same amount of intrigue as he had on the international market. Hahn might not say no, but his value is probably not well enough set.
INTRIGUING CHIPS
Jake Burger, Jimmy Lambert, Garrett Crochet, Micker Adolfo, Jared Kelly, Andrew Dalquist, Matthew Thompson, Yoelqui Cespedes.
There’s definitely more prospects that fit this, but these are the name guys with potential that aren’t going to fetch a huge return on their own, but can be a possible centerpiece in a deal too. It depends on taste, really, and whether these guys can fill a need. Case in point, Jake Burger has certainly opened eyes even in a small sample size, but to the Pirates he’s not a big prize because Ke’Bryan Hayes is on the rise. But flip the page to the Diamondbacks’ stage where they don’t have a 3B who is all the rage and maybe everyone is on the same page.
Dalquist, Kelly and Thompson are struggling in A-Ball but you can’t ignore the potential. Cespedes is early in the career but hitting, and Adolfo was hitting as well as Birmingham allows before heading to Charlotte. Those guys are the top prospects to trade.
Lambert and Crochet are big-league ready pitching, and while Crochet would damage the bullpen Lambert would damage the SP depth. Both would need to bring back a pitcher to replace them.
THE TOP CHIP
It’s Adam Engel.
He’s a legit starting CF in the majors at this point, as he’s shown power, speed and defense. He’s a lot like Aaron Rowand in that regard, and Rowand was traded for a legit Hall Of Fame baseball person in the form of Jim Thome. Engel hasn’t sustained it to the level that Rowand had when he was traded, so he’s probably not bringing back a superstar. But don’t think for a second that teams haven’t taken notice that the Sox outfield has a fourth guy that would fit nicely in their top three. You can make the case today, right now, that Engel should play RF with Robert in CF and Vaughn in LF down the stretch and keep Eloy at DH, with Sheets rotating in. But ultimately, what makes him attractive is that the Sox can live without him. Billy Hamilton and Brian Goodwin are here as reserves. Even if Eloy is primarily a DH for the rest of the year, going forward the starters seem to be Robert with Vaughn/Jimenez/Sheets and other guys rotating around. Even if Sheets isn’t the answer, isn’t right field destined to be Vaughn or a lefty power bat? You betcha.
So how to maximize his value is the question. When Engel’s name surfaced in the Mike Clevinger rumors last year, that made sense. Thankfully the trigger remained unpulled there, but Engel as a main, if not the main piece in a trade makes sense. Engel for Adam Frazier? Pirates are going to extort for more at the deadline, but in March they’d have done that in a heartbeat. Engel for Josh Harrison? That would be a waste for the Sox, but the Nats wouldn’t mind giving Juan Soto a running buddy like Engel.
Certainly fans are worried that Sheets or Burger are headed out, that there’s going to be some unbelievable trade of Kopech or shopping off Crochet. But don’t sleep on the idea that teams view The Man of Steal as an actual steal. Hopefully Rick understands what he has.
YOU DIDN’T REALLY YERMIN IT?
The saga of the man who thundered into the season as an old rookie, had a burger named for him, broke an unwritten rule, rankled his old school manager, lost confidence, couldn’t adjust to pitchers adjusting to him, got sent down, got his stroke back, called it quits cryptically on social media only to reverse course and come back days later is a baseball tale as old as time. I mean, probably happens 2-3 times a season.
If you sensed sarcasm there, it’s because I was laying it on thick. Yermin reminds me of the person with a trim figure who constantly complains about being fat just to get a compliment. Maybe there’s a real crisis of confidence in his future, but it just feels like a guy just making sure he is still wanted. He is, but the fragile psyche reputation he’s fostering isn’t good. Hopefully he’s just having a moment, and isn’t only going to succeed if everything and everyone is going his way.
Cleveland Guardians
Sure. Sounds great.
Actually, it doesn’t.
It’s fine.
Meh.
"Mismatched Sox - The Extra Sox in the Basement" 