"Mismatched Sox – The Extra Sox in the Basement"

So it goes that in the early part of the season Tony LaRussa declared that Andrew Vaughn was not a core player and needed to earn his at-bats. Meanwhile, the likes of Nick Williams, Billy Hamilton, Leury Garcia and Jake Lamb get starts over Vaughn even though the rook’s limited slash line is more productive. This begs questions, like: Does Tony hate playing rookies? For Tony have the veterans earned their at-bats solely from past successes? Does Vaughn need to have a Yermin-esque slash line to earn at-bats? What is Tony looking for in a rookie? Does Tony’s stance fly in the face of Rick Hahn’s plans? Are we hyping this up and it’s really a non-issue?

The short answers are no, yes, maybe, productivity, we’ll see, and I think so.

Let’s start with the question of whether Tony will play rookies in a meaningful amount of games. He has a long history and there are definitely seasons where he gave rookies a lot of play. The one difference with Vaughn and past rookies is that with some, he had seen some of them for several seasons in spring, and they had the “cup of coffee” as a September call up/fill in. In most cases the player was one that, as Tony said, earned at-bats and often kept hitting through their careers. Here’s the notable rookie rundown, discounting anything under 100 games unless the name really pops.

White Sox Part I: 1980: Harold Baines 141 games, earned it evidently; 1983: Greg Walker 118 games and Ron Kittle 145; 1985: Ozzie Guillen 150 games; 1986 Bobby Bonilla 75 games (traded midseason), John Cangelosi 137 games.

Oakland: 1987: Mark McGwire 151 games, Luis Polonia 125 games, Terry Steinbach 122 games (basically a full season as a catcher); 1993: Craig Paquette 105 games, Brent Gates 123 games; 1995: Jason Giambi 54 games.

St. Louis Cardinals: 1997: Dimitri Young, 110 games; 1999: Joe McEwing 156 games, JD Drew 104 games; 2001: Albert Pujols 161 games, Stubby Clapp 23 games; 2004: Yadier Molina 51 games (backing Mike Matheny); 2009: Colby Rasmus 147 games; 2010: Jon Jay 105 games.

The one thing that Andrew Vaughn does not have that the players on that list have is the benefit of Tony LaRussa being his team’s manager for all or part of the prior season. But he does have the pedigree as a prospect that ranks with names like Baines, McGwire, Drew, Pujols and Rasmus, even though some of those are prospects that fizzled more than sizzled. He also would be used out of position like Pujols or Kittle were in their early years (a 1B/DH cast as a passable at best OF).

Regardless, that’s just the guys that Tony trusted to play the majority of games where, according to his own edict, the player would have earned a roster spot and then earned their at-bats. There are gaps between years where he played rookies, but then there’s very little rebuilding in there as the teams he managed were typically contenders. Guys like Rasmus and Paquette that failed maybe “earned” the roster spot by the front office or by need, but Tony played them. So historically, it is unfair to say that Tony hates rookies. That said…

He likes veterans, even fringy ones. Look at his rosters over the years and there are names littered around that were veteran players who were either aging out into a part time role or guys that had never quite lived up to it in their prior stops. Guys like Billy Hamilton and Nick Williams, or going back to his first tenure an old Oscar Gamble and the immortal Jerry Dybzinski. The Sox of the early 80’s were a mix of finding a young core and moving veterans in and out, and by 1986 Tony was out before the team found a core that really came together in the 90’s. Tony went to the A’s, inherited some young stars and then went 6 years with a veteran squad before having to turn to two rookie infielders. You can argue that this is a failing of the front office, not developing talent from the draft, but Tony had veteran squads for years and never really had to give a rookie a shot. So he can stand by that adage that they have to play their way in. As Cardinals skipper, he plugged in rookies who were top prospects like Albert Pujols or guys like Super Joe McEwing, who played his way into the lineup. Looking at the list, J.D. Drew shared an outfield with Ray Lankford, Darren Bragg, and Eric Davis; Dimeathooks was gone to the Reds after his rookie campaign; Jon Jay was basically a 4th OF as was Albert, and Pujols is a future legit Hall Of Fame guy. With the A’s, McGwire and Steinbach were stars, Polonia was a good utility guy. With the Sox in the 80s it was similar story as far as being a star with Baines, Ozzie, and Bonilla, while Walker, Cangelosi, and Kittle played their way in from part time roles. Fair to say, Tony favors veterans over rookies unless they make him. Clearly, then, veteran players have pre-earned at bats with Tony based on having a history he can rely upon.

In 2021, (adjusting for inflation?) Tony is giving Yermin Mercedes gobs of plate appearances because the guy is outright destroying the ball. Meanwhile Vaughn is doing ok, taking walks and starting to hit better, but not great. So, Tony is sitting the “ok” rookie in favor of veterans, while using the hot rookie every day. If Yermin cools way off, he won’t be in there, and if Vaughn catches fire, chances are he’ll be in there. And maybe Tony is just building to that exact scenario, while saving Vaughn from himself for now. Veterans can handle an 0-fer…Rookies maybe not much. After all, if Leury Garcia has a bad day with the stick, there’s history that says he’s capable and fans, Tony and Leury know it. If Vaughn has a bad day, doubts about his ability creep in. And that creeping? Sure it creeps on fans who wondered about rushing the kid, and it creeps on the coaches who wonder if he’s ready or has the talent. But worse yet, it could creep on Andrew Vaughn himself, who is trying to prove he belongs. Tony might want to shorten Vaughn’s memory by matching him up favorably early, and letting the Jake Lambs of the team take the bad matchups that they’ll forget about the next day.

Also, right now Vaughn is not the best option in left field. He’s been better than feared, but Nick Williams, Billy Hamilton and Leury Garcia are actual experienced MLB outfielders. They have history at the plate and the field that sensibly shoes the veggie of the doubt over an unknown. When Tony turned to Gates and Paquette with the A’s, the roster was bereft of other choices. McEwing really took over for a very much done Fernando Vina. But we’re also 12 games into the season, and the idea that Tony would let Hamilton or Williams showcase a bit before Adam Engel comes back doesn’t preclude 140 games for Vaughn this year. So maybe Tony wants Vaughn to get hot like Yermin, or maybe it’s just too early to say that Vaughn won’t get the majority of games, but he needs to produce at the plate and in the field and be at least an equal option.

So is this a slap in the face of Rick Hahn or are we reading too much into it? It’s a bit of both, really. Hahn certainly didn’t expect Vaughn to ride the pine all that much. But then Hahn also wasn’t going into spring training expecting to lose Eloy Jimenez for almost the whole season or Yermin to be his best hitter after a dozen games. It’s going to be at odds with Hahn if Tony gives Vaughn 80 games and keeps trotting out a flailing Jake Lamb or a light-hitting Billy Hamilton. But if he does give Vaughn something like 130 games that’s probably more about balancing Vaughn’s defense, matchups and at bats for him, Yermin, Engel, Eaton, Robert and at the end of the year hopefully Eloy, that’s literally Tony’s job and that’s where the logjam is. It’s probably reasonable that Vaughn could get only 120 games given that crowd he’s in. Throw in trying to give Zack Collins some innings and keeping Grandal in on some of those Collins games, and Vaughn’s projected games lessen still more. Not because Tony is at odds with Rick, but because he has roster options that he needs to use.

It’s still fair to ask why not just run Vaughn out there everyday to see what you have. He can’t gain anything by sitting on the bench. Based on the fact that Nick Williams was designated for assignment, it becomes more important to determine whether that is Rick taking away a veteran to force Vaughn onto the field or just launching a guy that didn’t take advantage of his last shot at the bigs. At the end of the year whether the slow start and limited chances are a footnote in Vaughn’s rookie year, or his lack of playing time was a waste of service time, the determination will fall on whether Tony can justify “better options”.

The ultimate answer that Sox fans need in this situation? That Tony and Rick are in agreement that the intention was for Vaughn to get 120-140 games based on performance and balancing the lineup. Otherwise, Vaughn will have to force Tony’s hand or Rick will have to continue to limit the options on the roster, and only one of those will lead to the playoffs. History suggests the side this needs to fall on…earn the at-bats Andrew, and don’t make this a Rick Hahn and Tony LaRussa fight.

Rodón Returns, A Great Sequel?

On Wednesday, April 14, 2021 I was by golly glad that Carlos Rodón was feeling better and starting a game for the White Sox. And that, for me, was odd. I was not a fan until this spring, when reading about changes to his mechanics and approach manifested in just blowing guys away. I even, to the amazement of one Christopher Lanuti, went so far as to watch old video and compare it to see why he was so much better. That Wednesday night I looked forward to watching the game, even streaming it to my phone so I could attend my parental duties without missing anything. Well, missing anything on the game (kids are resilient). Like all fans…as the game wore on I felt it. I sensed the epic nature of what was unfolding. And by the end, I not only was excited to have seen a no-hitter and damn near perfect game (my favorite achievement in sports), but my view of Carlos Rodón had completely changed.

On the occasion of his signing, I lamented Rick Hahn not improving the team but settling instead on the very average Carlos Rodón. Rodón had been chronically injured and had never really looked like his first round status was warranted. He had velocity, and a wicked slider, but didn’t seem to have much more. The hope was that the team knew something about his rehab and health. The hope was that Ethan Katz, who had been credited with Lucas Giolito’s massive turnaround, saw something in Rodón that he could fix. I’m happy to report that was all true and when he re-signed Rodón, Rick knew something that I didn’t, and the current Rodón is not the same guy that was non-tendered.

The quip that “Baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical.”, as Yogi Berra once noted, is an important part of analyzing the “new” Rodón. For one thing, he’s healthy. He’s past Tommy John, his shoulder is good, and that adds to his confidence. There’s no hesitation. He’s throwing the ball with conviction and attacking. He feels like he can, so he can.

There’s also the Katz factor. There’s a tweak in Rodón’s delivery and thought process. He’s not as gangly as Giolito so it isn’t as noticeable, and he was never as erratic as Cease, so the changes aren’t as dramatic. But the changes are super effective.

Rodón is using his lower half more. It’s maybe showing up as a slightly bigger knee drop it a little more bend to his follow through, but examining videos of Rodón in 2020 vs. this year it’s more noticeable in how the ball leaves his hand. In the past, he was more arm than body and it showed when his fastball would look like it was hanging there, versus his slider which had a distinct bend even leaving the hand. As he flung his pitches, the slider looked nasty and big, but changeups and heaters looked like meatballs because the action to generate break isn’t the same as generating the ride that changes and fastballs need. The arm-heavy action helped the breakers but did nothing for control or ride. Plus, with a better stride that he’s using comes a delivery that gets a touch closer to the plate, making that 98 mph fastball in the 9th during his no-hitter look that much faster.

Really though, what Rodón is doing is more mental than physical. Think about a golf swing or basketball shot. In golf if you tell your hands to push the club through to the ball, you better have strong hands that can repeatedly keep the club head aligned or you’ll be inconsistent and all over the place. For many golfers, telling your front shoulder to pull the club through the ball creates a more repeatable swing, steadies the hands, and often yields more power as you engage your back and lower body to pull the club. In basketball, if you set your feet and shoot with little or no jump, using the elbow, wrist and shoulder only, the range will depend on arm strength alone and the accuracy will suffer as the arm needs to go harder to generate more power. With power coming from the legs, the arm can remain smooth and accurate.

And that’s what Rodón really looks like he’s doing, just mentally focusing his mechanics around letting his body deliver the power while his arm and hand focus on accuracy and generating the right spin. Hey, 90% of the game is mental. Unlike the flung meatballs of the past, his fastball now drives at the plate and looks less distinguishable from the slider. The breaking balls are less dramatic, but more effective because they are disguised. And as Steve Stone noted during the no hitter, his changeup is a legitimate pitch because it too is better disguised and can be thrown as a strike. Rodón is at least a three pitch pitcher, and four if you include the occasional curve, and his control has been great. That’s a far cry from his past seasons.

So this is, in effect, a different guy than the one that was non-tendered after yet another disappointing season in 2020. His stuff looks different, his approach is different, his health is so far different, and after nearly perfecting it all on April 14, 2021, the fan opinion about Carlos Rodón deserves to be different. And for this fan, it is. And that’s perfect.

A Lineup’s worth of Things about the Sox that worry me, an ongoing list:

1. Well, crap, now Rick needs to extend Lucas AND Carlos.
2. Jose Abreu really is regressing against righties.
3. I think I also like Adam Eaton again. Damnit.
4. Garret Crochet getting bunted to death.
5. Andrew Vaughn needing at-bats vs. Adam Engel continuing his 2020.
6. Eloy’s recovery being hampered by random walls and nets ganging up on him.
7. Yoan Moncada seems a bit lost at the plate too.
8. Yermin Mercedes celebrates as hard as he hits, and somehow Eloy will get hurt as a result.
9. I think I like Zack Collins defensively as a catcher and glad he’s the backup. Who am I???.
10. And warming up in the pen: Liam Hendriks needing a live chicken instead of sage next time, and only being able to get Popeyes or KFC.

The Weird Sox get a meaningful meaningless win

It was just a Monday. Fans were at work, unemployed fans were unaware it was Monday, Garfield the Cat was running the now 40+ year old hating Mondays gag into the ground and somewhere, someone was posting the Boomtown Rats’ “I Don’t Like Mondays” on social media thinking it was clever. It wasn’t. But that’s ok for the purposes of the 2021 Chicago White Sox and their championship aspirations. This Monday happened to fall on April 12th, and the Sox were scheduled to play the game of baseball against the division-rival Cleveland Baseball Assemblage, who at 5-3 were ahead of the Sox, then 4-5, with much baseball left to play in the season.

Carlos Rodon was the scheduled starter, and early in the day his stomach was feeling poorly. His wife would assert that he is really more of an intestinal irritation guy and his stomach ailment was a mistake, but however you spun it Carlos wasn’t in shape to take the mound. Shit happens.

As rumors abounded that Rodon was maybe going on the Covid IL, or somehow Reynaldo Lopez was going to start, fans everywhere started having sympathy pains in their gastrointestinal tract. After a gut punch loss to the Royals where the most expensive acquisition of the offseason blew a save he was getting paid to not blow, chunk blowing at the thought of Reynaldo was warranted.

Yet, from the fog (and stench) of those rancid reactions, emerged the Sox #2 starter. That pun was not intended, but Dallas Keuchel responded to being asked if he could start on his bullpen day with a “sure” and 5 solid innings. Five innings that would end with the game tied, but a game the Sox would win in weird fashion and a game that will bring the team together and get them on their way.

This is a weird team, in a good way. Up is down, right is left, dogs and cats are living together and opened a bar serving mice hazy IPAs. Or, in order, Adam Eaton is leading the teams in homers including potential game-winning dongs on Sunday and Monday; to correct the feel of the locker room Liam Hendriks brought in the supernatural; and the Sox won a game by having their starting catcher take a throw off his head after a backup OF Non-Roster Invitee taking the spot of a different (injured) backup OF Non-Roster Invitee dribbled a ball to first, allowing rookie Nick Madrigal to score after he pinch-ran for a 28-year-old rookie DH who “needed” his 1-out single to keep his batting average at .500. All while the team’s top prospects watched. Things aren’t all bad or all good, but they are a bit…weird.

Leaning into vibe, Liam Hendriks trying to undo the middlin’ bad vibes of a rocky team start by bringing in family friend “Rubi” to rid the place of bad spirits is a total Pedro Cerrano ‘don’t drink Jobu’s rum’ move. They brought back Adam Eaton, who was known as a good bat with a good glove, and so far he’s been channeling Eloy Jimenez with clutch homers and bonehead plays. Their best players aren’t playing well (or are hurt), and their actual best player is now a backup catcher that spent 11 years just trying to get a shot. They have a manager who pulls his starters early but inexplicably (even to him) let Matt Foster rot for what seemed to be 6 hours and 195 earned runs in one game. Their top prospects are a DH learning to be a left fielder and a starting pitcher destroying teams as a middle reliever. They have a pop star at 3B, a gold-glove caliber CF who let one bounce off his head…and Jose Ruiz has the same ERA as Aaron Bummer. The team is just a little weird to start the season.

So the Sox needed a weird win to properly uncork the weirdness wine and let everything realign. It starts with another oddity on the season: the non-tendered and subsequently re-signed Carlos Rodon had been their best starting pitcher in spring training and had the first real dominant start of the season. If you had told fans in February that they would be worried about Rodon missing a start, you’d have been whacked upside the brainpan with the Staff of Cork and Kerry. But here we were, lamenting Carlos’ sour tummy and worried that we would lose another game for lack of him being there to lock down a weakish Cleveland lineup. It gets weirder again when Dallas Keuchel is named the starter on short rest. It gets weirder still when Adam Eaton of all guys goes deep to give the Sox a lead after doing it as a pinch hitter the day before. It gets weirder yet when Keuchel suddenly loses it in the 6th. The weirdness cherry on the weirdness pie comes in the 9th when after a Mercedes single and a Yasmani Grandal walk, a routine fielder’s choice grounder by a guy that shouldn’t be hitting there gets tossed off of Grandal’s head, allowing the go-ahead run to score from second. A weird game to be sure, but one that should turn it all on for them.

Luck is a fickle lady, and the Sox haven’t been lucky to start the season. Sure, you make your own luck by being in position to capitalize on a break, but there were no real breaks for the Sox through the first three series and some bad luck had come their way. Then Cleveland 1B Yu Chang, a shortstop by trade, beans a runner trying to turn two. That’s lucky…he wasn’t aiming for Yas and Yas didn’t get in the way on purpose. It’s also lucky that the carom off the helmet scampers right to where no one can get it quickly, and because one of the fastest guys on the active roster is headed to third already, he is in position to capitalize on the good luck and score. But this wasn’t just good luck…good luck would have been Nick Williams lofting a popup in between three players or cuing the ball just past the pitcher but too weakly to get to either of the infielders. It was weird luck. And when good luck gets weird, it changes a person.

Getting lucky in a weird circumstance makes it seem like anything is possible, even being invinceable. So the team has to be feeling better, or at least like the sage worked. The universe smiled out a win when the team wasn’t at its best. But more importantly, a proven winner and team leader bailed out his team by happily giving a good start on his off day, when as the team’s highest-paid starter he could have played the diva. The bullpen guys then went out hellbent on making Dallas’ effort count. Evan Marshall escapes a bases-loaded jam with just one run scoring, and between him, Aaron Bummer and Codi Heuer the Sox bullpen show the heart and talent we expected. The offense finally got a lucky bounce their way, but were lead there by a guy in Adam Eaton that had every reason to never come back to the Southside and a rookie in Yermin Mercedes that was never supposed to be further north than Charlotte. If the stars in the lineup are paying attention, they’ll take note of the two guys that are just happy to be here and make their efforts count.

It doesn’t take much for a team to come together and play more confidently and with more swagger. A game that should have had little meaning on an otherwise unremarkable April Monday, a game that was shaping up to be a loss because of an illness became a win after some heart was put on display and some luck dropped in to say “hey”. If an otherwise unremarkable April win is what propels the team forward, it’ll be weird, but we’ll take it.

The Sweat Meter, a system to manage your White Sox Worries.

As the Sox continue to be up and down to start the season, concerns will pop up. Here, weekly, Sox in The Basement and Mismatched Sox will measure the concerning stuff, big and small, and determine whether to sweat it at all. The range runs from five Sweaty Freddies to one, five being sheer panic and one being nothing to worry about at all.

No Sweat here: Liam Hendriks will blow a save now and then, better now than then. Dylan Cease will go more than 5 innings someday. Andrew Vaughn’s playing time might soon be coming at the expense of guys that are outproducing him.

Just Glistening: With the Royals being bigger pests and the Tigers being better than advertised, the Central isn’t the cakewalk that was expected. The Sox are trying to do waaayyyyy too much with runners in scoring position.

Notably not dry: Yoan Moncada’s struggles are real. Not using Crochet and Kopech in any back-to-backs means that their appearances are wasted if the Sox lose, as their absences in other losses might have meant the difference. Andrew Vaughn’s playing time is not coming in favor of guys that are not outproducing him.

Beyond Moist: Jose Abreu is still trying too hard to be the MVP.

Call Family Waterproofing Solutions, its a flood: They ran out of beer and food early on opening day…?

The emergence of the Yerminator and an unwritten future

Static electricity crackled through Glendale and a breeze kicked up from nowhere. A sphere of pure energy formed and a naked backup catcher appeared, walked out of the shower and got dressed for a spring training game, effectively telling a few players that he needed their jobs, and possibly their clothes. Jonathon Lucroy was released, Eloy Jimenez got hurt. Not because Yermin did anything to them but because the 28-year-old catcher and his fellow catcher Zack Collins made it harder to add Lucroy to the 40-man, and because Eloy hurting himself had joined death and taxes as an inevitability in life. But one shouldn’t rule out that Yermin had them…Yerminated.

It’s one week or so in, but Yermin Mercedes been the Sox best hitter and the regular DH. In his first home at-bat he went back-to-back with Yoan Moncada by sending a ball damn near 500 feet out to left. Yerminated.

And it hasn’t looked like a fluke. The 8-for-8 to start the season was something, but this hasn’t been a guy getting lucky or doing something he’s never done in the minors. Yermin was a .308 hitter with an .862 OPS across 11 seasons in the minors, independents, and anywhere that would have him. His hits have been in the form of mashing mistakes and getting wood on both fastballs and off speed stuff. He is still striking out and getting beat by good pitches like you do, but, he looks like a professional hitter. It could be sustainable.

If it is, there’s impact for 2021 and possibly beyond. There’s also sour grapes. Let’s start there and see if we can make wine outta whine.

The sour grapes is but one question on the vine: Where the hell was this guy last year???? He had one at-bat, where he walked. Meanwhile Ricky Renteria gave DH Edwin Encarnación 181 plate appearances and he did nothing with them. Yermin had hit in spring training and then in the summer camp. He had hit in 2019 at Charlotte and Birmingham. He wasn’t that much of a mystery. There’s no fault in Rick Hahn signing Encarnación, who had been a premiere DH, but it was clear by September that he wasn’t anymore. If Ricky had thrown Yermin in there for real to give them a jolt at the DH spot, would the team have struggled down the stretch as badly as they did or get bumped out at all against the A’s? Possibly, there was more going on than a bad DH. However there were two gaping holes in the lineup, as DH and RF were manned by guys that were struggling badly. Giving a spot to a guy that had a chance to hit the way Yermin has so far could have changed the outcome.

But that’s revisionist history and padding the word count. The best case scenario for the Sox in 2021 and beyond is that Yermin Mercedes establishes that he is, in fact, a bona fide major league hitter; that he is a viable starting DH; and that he helps the Sox get to the 2021 playoffs and helps offset the loss of Eloy Jimenez.

The worst-case scenario? Yermin slumps, he gets replaced in the lineup and heads back to AAA when they need a roster spot. But based on what he’s shown so far, that scenario would be just as astounding as his hot start.

Let’s assume Yermin stays in the lineup, but cools off and down to an above-average hitter, settling in at, say, Luke Voit circa 2019: 429 AB, .263 avg., 21 HR with an OPS of .842, OPS+ of 123. Voit is another late bloomer that has blossomed into a key hitter in a lineup with champion aspirations, so it’s a fair comp, though Yermin was a better hitter in the minors. That stat line could also be Andrew Vaughn or Adam Engel or Zack Collins just as easily as Yermin. Basically, 2019 Voit is a solid floor for the White Sox DH/LF slot this season. Not Eloy, but you’d take those numbers as part of the lineup.

In the short term, to get there the pressure is squarely on Andrew Vaughn. He was supposed to be the chosen one, and he hasn’t hit. Sure, there’s pressure learning left field or whatever as far as excuses, but the fact is that he’s struggling badly. He’s sitting for Billy Hamilton and Nick Williams to start in left. When Adam Engel comes back, Engel belongs on the roster and could still outright claim the left field job. So someone has to go. Common sense says Nick Williams gets the heave-ho to make room for the Man of Steal, and unless Williams shows something right now, he will eventually be gone. Williams has pressure enough with this stint to show that the Phillies were wrong and he is an MLB player, not a AAA/AAAA guy. Tony will give him that chance, but Williams is really holding Billy Hamilton’s spot as the 26th man unless he proves otherwise. Vaughn and Engel should be the better options at the plate.

And as a player, Vaughn is not a 26th man; he’s a top prospect and expected starter. But Engel returning and playing, if Yermin is still hitting and Vaughn is not, leaves Vaughn on the bench. For playing time Vaughn would be behind Danny Mendick, who might be starting a lot in TA7’s absence because he is a better SS than Leury Garcia, who in turn would be ahead of Vaughn as a utility guy. Zack Collins is safe because Yermin has yet to take the field, meaning the Sox don’t trust the Yerminator’s defense or game calling, or both. That leaves Williams/Hamilton or Jake Lamb; and what has more value at the end of the bench, an average or better running left-handed hitting OF that can at least serve as a pinch runner, or a slow righty bat that isn’t hitting and can’t hardly field? Hamilton made the team because his speed and fielding make him useful in a part time role. Lamb is at least a backup 3B and could have already lost his spot to Danny Mendick if Danny plays well. Vaughn’s skills mean he should be in there just about every day and getting steady at-bats. Engel’s looming return gives Andrew Vaughn only a couple weeks to prove himself. If he still isn’t outhitting Yermin, then highly touted top prospect Andrew Vaughn really should go down to the minors and work it out there instead of rotting on the pine watching 28-year-old rookie Yermin Mercedes do his job.

Over the long haul, Yermin showing he’s real means the pressure is still on Andrew Vaughn and maaaaaayyyyybe Zack Collins. If Collins fails to hit or if Yermin somehow establishes himself defensively this year, Collins could be done. It feels unlikely that Yermin will be allowed to catch all that much and Collins has had some life to his bat. From the standpoint that Yermin is just a DH going forward, Vaughn needs to prove himself in the outfield to make sure that he has a spot (Adam Eaton’s) next year, and/or prove at the MLB level that he is the better hitter now than Yermin, Adam Engel, and maybe someone like Nick Williams or Gavin Sheets. Based on the pedigree, Vaughn should outpace all those guys at the plate. But if it goes Vaughn > Yermin > Eaton/Engel > The Rest, Vaughn has to play the outfield for the Sox to be best as a team. If it is Vaughn > Eaton/Engel > Yermin, Vaughn is safely the DH over Yermin, but with another issue. The problem beyond 2021 (and hopefully by September) is that Yermin, Vaughn and Eloy are all basically DH candidates. Frankly, going forward Vaughn does the Sox a huge solid if he becomes a serviceable outfielder. In the early going it’s been Schwarber levels of ok, but he needs to hit for any of it to matter.

By the end of the seaon and into the future, realistically The Sox can’t afford to have Eloy and Vaughn in the same outfield, even with Luis Robert between them. And continuing ti treat this all realistically, The Legend of the Yerminator is not as real as Eloy Jimenez or Andrew Vaughn’s skills. If, and that’s still an if, Yermin has arrived in the MLB and is here to stay, enjoy him now Sox fans because the best thing he can do besides getting them to the promised land is become trade bait in the offseason. And with the Universal DH coming, teams will be taking a good, long look to see if a Mercedes can drive them to the playoffs and Yerminate their competition. We will miss the wordplay, for sure.

IN CASE YOU HAVE FOMO

Trevor Bauer had multiple baseballs taken for analysis of foreign substances after his start against the A’s, per Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. As noted by Yahoo! Sports Ryan Young, Bauer had a 23-minute protest video on You Tube about the new efforts at enforcement/crackdown on doctoring the ball by claiming in part that the foreign substance could be from the catcher’s mitt or shin guards, the third baseman, a ball hit off the pine tar on the bat…yeah, Trevor, right. Because that’s what happens. If you were worried about the Sox not spending on Bauer, don’t. Just…don’t.

Also, George Springer is still hurt, so no worries there.

A Lineup’s worth of Things about the Sox that worry me, an ongoing list:

1. The Bullpen, especially now that Matt Foster should have PTSD.
2. Depth. In case you haven’t noticed how that’s going so far…
3. Eloy’s recovery being hampered by trying to jump for objects on high shelves.
4. Tony getting a feel for his bullpen leading to the bullpen being abused early.
5. The toll of a balky hammy on Tim Anderson and Adam Engel, two guys that really need their legs and whose legs are really needed by the Sox.
6. Dallas Keuchel needing a Sox defense that just isn’t there for him.
7. Nick Madrigal’s elite contact skills being no match for having the exit velocity of a wet turd.
8. Dylan Cease regressing to bad habits now that the games count.
9. Hamstrings are falling way too fast.
10. And warming up in the pen: Liam Hendriks being held back for save chances that never show up.

Mismatched Sox HOTT Takes from around the league. The extra T is for Truth.

Or the extra T is for terrible. Or twiddle, because my phone wanted that word. Either way let’s see what the league hath wrought one weekend and a day in.

NL East:

The Mets and Nats were postponed for Covid reasons, a reminder that games will be lost in 2021 like they were in 2020. Nats were the positive team, rumors abound as to who. Presumptive 3B Carter Kieboom was rumored to be one of them, but for the second year in a row a journeyman had to take over for him so Starlin Castro is expected to make a full recovery. The Phillies pitched well in their sweep of the Braves, but in fairness to the Braves it’s hard to play in Philly when the giveaways on all three nights are free untraceable projectiles to the first 8,000 in attendance. But hey, welcome back fans. Miami ran into a very good Rays team. They needed to back up and try running into them again, because the Rays generally played better baseball and took the series.

NL Central

The Cubs looked better then advertised but then they were playing the Pirates. Had they lost the series, by mandate they would have been replaced by the Schaumburg Boomers. Meanwhile the Reds and Cardinals duked it out for supremacy of the division, including an actual brawl that somehow spread Covid to the Washington Nationals. The Brewers trotted out a light lager on the Twinkies when they needed something with a fruity note. You’d think beer makers would know better. Oh and they lost the series.

NL West

The Padres whipped the hapless Diamondbacks while The Dodgers smacked around the Rockies. It was the opening weekend that will be the first to compare the teams in a preview of the NLCS unless the matchups end up with those teams in the divisional series. The Dodgers got contributions from unlikely sources while the Padres spent all their money on last year’s most popular model. Sure the Dodgers gave stupid money to Trevor Bauer, but they have whirlpools of treasure in their training room so it wasn’t ALL their money on Bauer. The Rockies of course will be better at home where they can handle they smoke at altitude while the other team usually can’t. The Giants struggled a bit against the Mariners, but at the age of most of the Giants, Seattle is distracting because of all the “Frasier” sightseeing.

AL East

The Jays of somewhere versus the Bombers of the Bronx. The rebels against the Empire. Three tight games. Super exciting ones at that but because hockey is still going on only part of NYC saw any of it (lazy joke). Jays’ highlights included defense and homers, the Yankees’ highlights were a dude going 6 innings in relief in one game. The Orioles gave the Red Sox their worst home start in decades, fueled in part by the inspiration of Trey Mancini coming back from cancer. No real joke there, that’s actually pretty awesome for the guy. Tampa’s only real threat in Miami was getting the games in before curfew.

AL Central

Something something mumble mumble Angels. Of Anaheim. The Tigers surprised the Cleveland Baseball Assemblage with timely hitting, and by attacking the Clevelanders’ biggest weakness. The Tigers had a “pitcher” throw baseballs to a “catcher” at home plate, confounding Cleveland’s hitters to no end. The Royals tangled with the Rangers and after they got untangled, they played baseball and the Royals demonstrated their lack of pitching prowess. But that was OK for the Royals, as the Rangers demonstrated their lack of pitching prowess better. Or worser? Twinkies rarely beat beer but then the Brewers aren’t great at baseball.

AL West

Grumble grumping something White Sox and Angels. Shohei Ohtani tho. Whew. The Astros. The A’s. The series that will be the first salvo to determine the AL West crown, except that the Astros absolutely stomped a mudhole in Oakland and so that settles that, right? The Mariners did well against the Giants largely by playing them at 4pm so the Giants couldn’t get out to dinner. The Rangers are looking forward to their home crowds giving the Nationals Covid.

So what did opening weekend tell us? Good teams are good, bad teams are bad and the Angels probably cheat. The Astros might have sewn up their division, because the Angels will be disqualified for cheating. The Yankees better not get cocky because the Orioles are coming. The Centrals are open wide for everyone but the Pirates. The Nats picked the wrong week to quit submitting themselves to Covid-19 protections and sniffing glue. And the Angels probably cheat.

The Sweat Meter, a system to manage your White Sox Worries.

Well, opening weekend went poorly. For the White Sox faithful there’s definitely grumping and hot takes that Rick Hahn paradoxically both ignores and gets bothered by in unison. These concerns range from legit to overblown. As the longest of the major sports seasons, baseball will always have opportunities to give you causes for concern both short and long term. Here, weekly, Sox in The Basement and Mismatched Sox will measure the concerning stuff, big and small, and determine whether to sweat it at all. The range runs from five Sweaty Freddies to one, five being sheer panic and one being nothing to worry about at all.

Don’t Sweat It: Andrew Vaughn will get a hit and then more. The bullpen beyond Kopech and Crochet are fine, Tony’s just getting a feel for them (although Hendriks should have pitched the 9th on Sunday). Luis Robert and Adam Eaton are good fielders who had bad days. Dylan Cease continues to have oddly repetitive stat lines that are in no way an indication of dark magic at work, I think.

A few drops on the ‘ol forehead: Bad defense is a sign of lack of focus and they were sloppy all spring, but they should get better. The narrative that the Sox are only good against bad teams wasn’t helped this weekend. TA’s hammy is not something you want bothering him. No one is hitting, and the pitching didn’t carried them the way you’d want, but it’s one series.

I need a towel: Yoan Moncada is striking out a lot. A lot a lot. He looks bad. Zack Collins was a different guy in AZ, and in keeping with his admittedly limited history he again looked weak when they started counting. The bench is thin as hell with Engel out, and maybe not much better with him back. Jake Lamb?

Sooooo damp: Jose Abreu is being discussed as a headcase now because the lineup isn’t as strong as he’d like without Eloy, and he looked like he was trying to hit a 6-run HR every time up. If Eloy is his security blanket to that degree, it’ll be an issue until the fall and that’s too late.

Call Family Waterproofing Solutions, its a flood: Nahhh…too early for real panic. We’ll do this again next week and see whether we should worry to this degree.

Happy stuff!!

Here’s the happy stuff from the weekend:

In an early entry I weaponized the staff of Cork and Kerry as a group who would behead Rick Hahn for a poor off-season. It then grew from a mass beating to an actual (fictional?) object used to smite thine enemies, even if they be Angels. This week, Yermín Mercedes wielded the Staff of Cork and Kerry, and smote angelic pitchers 8 times in a row. Is he real? His .307 average and .861 OPS over 11 seasons at various levels suggests that he is an actual hitter, as does his 15% K rate. He didn’t come through Sunday night, but Ohtani is nasty isn’t he? If his minors stats continue to carry over, he should be a mainstay until Eloy is ready.

Good lord, Crochet and Kopech. Right now they are bridging the starters from the 4th/5th inning but in a few weeks to a month when the starters are getting into the 6th and beyond, these guys might get 2 or 3 inning saves.

Lance Lynn was as advertised, if the defense doesn’t cause problems he was doing exactly what he’s paid to do and you might have saved the bullpen for Sunday. He wasn’t dominant per se, but he battled and kept the Angels at bay through stuff, guile and knowledge. Consider what they did to Keuchel and Cease (both of whom were decent), and Lynn’s Saturday night was both encouraging and comforting.

His stats are lower than you’d want after 4 games, but “Nicky Two-Strikes” Madrigal also looks like he was advertised at the plate, constantly putting it in play. And he stole that base, eventually Tony will just trust him when he says he’s safe.

Jose Ruiz didn’t suck. (Look they lost 3 out of 4 and I’m just trying to stay positive, okay?)

Let’s play the prediction game and see what the future holds for the Sox…and the rest of the league.

WHITE SOX:

Record: 95-67, 1st in AL Central because screw the Twins.

Playoffs: ALDS 3-0 over Tampa; ALCS 4-2 over NYY; WS 4-3 over Dodgers. Seems legit.

Best Overall Hitter: Yoan Moncada, .311 avg., 24 2B, 5 3B, 30 HR, 87 BB, 112 K, .407 OBP, .541 SLG, .948 OPS

Highest Average: Tim Anderson, .332 avg. (juuuust nipping Nick Madrigal, .329).

Home Run leader: Jose Abreu, 36 HR. (2nd place a 3-way tie Grandal, Moncada and Robert with 30 each).

Stolen base leader: Nick Madrigal, 46 steals. Hard for TA7 to steal after all those doubles, which are not an issue for Nick.

RBI leader: Abreu, 127 RBI.

ERA, starters: Lucas Giolito, 2.39

ERA, Relievers: Evan Marshall, 1.94ish

K’s: Giolito, 298 (In 178 innings. So a lot.)

Wins: Lance Lynn, 21

Losses: Lance Lynn, 11

Starts: Lance Lynn, 32

Innings: Lance Lynn, 288

Saves: Hendriks, 43

Accolades: Tim Anderson, Batting title. Andrew Vaughn, ROY (.285/35 2B/25 HR/107 RBI/.845 SLG). Lucas Giolito, Cy Young (19-2, 2.39 ERA 1.02 WHIP). Yoan Moncada, ALDS and ALCS MVP. Jose Abreu, WS MVP.

I literally pulled all of that out of my butt. If any of it comes true I just get bragging rights and my butt will officially replace PECOTA and Fangraphs. As it is, my butt is in contention to replace a billboard on the inbound Dan Ryan.

Sox Storylines, 2021: Things that are and may never be.

Andrew Vaughn will play more than 100 games in LF. This will be by design and by need. The aftermath of the Eloy Jimenez injury was to speculate who replaces him in the lineup, and Vaughn is already a lock. It comes down to the bats of Adam Engel and Zack Collins, with maybe…Jake Lamb? If you want a lefty, that’s Lamb or Collins, neither of which is an outfielder and neither of which has a future with the team where a conversion would be necessary. Collins as a DH this year means little as he would still be a catcher in the future. Jake Lamb may not have a future with the team at all, or the MLB for that matter. If they outhit or even platoon with Adam Engel, Vaughn will see the majority of his innings in left. Meanwhile, it was assumed that Eloy and Andrew would spend the next decade or so together hitting baseballs like they were quaffing beers. The original plan was that Vaughn would DH and maybe replace Jose Abreu down the road at 1B. Eloy would be the LF and then DH when Abreu gets his statue and pre-game ceremony featuring former teammates Tyler Saladino and Jarrod Dyson. The real problem is when Eloy comes back, you still have years of Jose Abreu at first to deal with. I know he’s 34, but the reigning AL MVP that is known for his smarts, professionalism and ridiculous preparation can easily play until he’s 40. So for the next, say, 4-6 years you need to find a place for Vaughn and Jimenez, and only one can DH. But Eloy can’t ever play LF again. He went from injury-risk and comically bad fielder to being a legitimate danger to himself and others. Fans too. Sitting on the shelf won’t make him better at judging flyballs or the distance to the wall. He can’t help himself; Eloy is a good athlete (better than Vaughn), which means Eloy wants to do the things that athletic outfielders do. When we’ve seen him try to do those things, he ends up on the IL. Vaughn will be bad, but safe as a below-average fielder and a risk-averse one at that. I’m 99.7% sure the guy knows he’s not particularly tall or fast and will do what he suggested as he prepped to make his first start in left: chase balls right at him or to his right, and let Luis Robert take everything else. If Vaughn shows this year that he can be even a passable defender and not hurt himself, he’s the new LF and Eloy is a DH, maybe forever. That said, in the short run if the DH battle is lost by Zack Collins and Jake Lamb to Adam Engel, he’ll play LF and Vaughn will DH, and Vaughn will play 40-50 games in left (mainly while Eaton is hurt, resting or against certain lefties).

Speaking of Lamb, Jason Bennetti will describe him as roasted, silenced, slaughtered, and having mint jelly put on him after he goes 0-4 on Easter with 4 Ks. He will get hit by a pitch, which Len Kasper will describe as “sheared”.

Dylan Cease and, gulp, Carlos Rodón will keep Michael Kopech from starting more than 10 games. Kopech will start games as guys are hurt and will spot-start in double headers a few times, but his role in the bullpen and the success of Cease and Rodón will keep LaRussa from making the change. Cease will still be an adventure on the mound, but will keep his ERA in the 3.00’s and strikeout almost 300 batters in 170 innings. Rodón will take a breather mid-season when he gets dead-arm for a week or so, but he’ll make over 20 starts and go 5.2 innings per on average. A far cry from being a pair of aces as their pedigree suggests, but there won’t be any reason to mess with them until the playoffs, when Rodon gets a matchup-based start in the ALDS and Cease follows Kuechel striking out 10 in 8 innings, in a Sox won 15-inning ALCS classic.

Garrett Crochet’s stats will look pedestrian but his impact will be huge. LaRussa won’t hesitate to bring Crochet in to face a high-leverage situation, where his 100+ MPH heat and slider will end rallies. But in games where Crochet is given a chance to throw multiple innings, he’ll get into some trouble here and there, making his ERA and WHIP look worse for the wear as he has a small sample size of innings.

Adam Eaton will be the 4th OF in the playoffs. Adam Engel will play his way into a starter’s role with an Aaron Rowand-esque value at the plate and more importantly, gold-glove caliber defense in RF. LaRussa will favor the extra D down the stretch and into the post-season, finding better value at DH and needing Vaughn in left.

Zack Collins and Yermin Mercedes will combine to form some Voltron version of James McCann. Lucas Giolito will have a complete game shutout with 18 Ks with one of them, and that will be his guy every time out. At the plate they’ll replace McCann’s production and surpass it, primarily rotating at DH with Grandal and catching 50 games between them.

Collins or Mercedes will be dealt at the deadline for a DH/OF or a pitcher. Having shown their value in a catcher-thin league, they’ll be the bait to get a needed arm or a more accomplished bat. Sox Twitter will suggest that Grandal should have been traded instead.

Lance Lynn will open the playoffs. Lynn will be the best suited to pitch on short rest and LaRussa will view Giolito as an almost given victory in games 2 and 6, with Lynn taking 1, 4 and if needed, 7. It won’t be needed until the joyous end.

Eloy Jimenez will be on the playoff roster and will launch 3 pinch-hit HR between the ALCS and WS, including the series winner. He won’t be in the lineup because of a leg injury suffered trying to toss a foul ball out of the dugout.

Abreu will take the Series MVP from Yoan Moncada the way Jermaine Dye took it from Joe Crede in 2005. I mean, yeah, JD had great numbers and the series winning RBI, but Crede was just so damn clutch. Same vibe here, but no one complains.

ESPN will forget the Sox won in 2021 while recapping the 2021 season. In spring 2022.

Let’s predict the league stuff:

AL Division Winners: Sox, Yankees and Astros.

Wild Card Teams: Blue Jays, Tampa, Mariners, Twins will all be in contention; Mariners and Rays take it because screw the Twins. (Twice!)

NL Division Winners: Cardinals, Mets, Dodgers

Wild Card Teams: Padres, Braves, Nationals and Cubs will all be in contention; Padres and Braves take it.

AL MVP: Mike Trout, in a mild upset over Moncada and Tim Anderson.

NL MVP: Freddie Freeman. Safe bet anyway.

AL Cy Young: Lucas Giolito

NL Cy Young: Yu Darvish, because Trevor Bauer will implode.

AL ROY: Andrew Vaughn

NL ROY: Ke’Bryan Hayes? Sure.

Major storylines: After Zac Gallen, three more major NL pitchers get hurt while batting, and the universal DH gets adopted for 2022. In the meantime the MLB PA is caught sending a memo that pitchers can only throw fastballs to each other on the main part of the plate. In response, Carlos Rodón’s wife takes to Twitter and says her husband is misused hitting fastballs because he’s an offspeed guy. The Marlins sell at the deadline in spite of being tied for second in the NL East and only 5 games out; this sits…poorly with the league…but the Sox’ infamous White Flag Trade trends on Twitter for a bit and it’s suggested by Sox Twitter that the Sox follow suit because at that moment the Twins are up by a game. Mike Trout demands a trade at midseason and the Padres somehow have the best prospects package but the Angels balk at dealing him, instead trading for fading Giants catcher Buster Posey. Immediately Posey, Pujols and Justin Upton each break a hip and catch the shingles. Corey Kluber regains his old form and it’s revealed he was locked in Corey Feldman’s basement in 2019 and 2020 while Feldman took his place in a Kluber mask. The Rangers are blamed for a rise in Covid cases in Texas that the state says was actually just allergies. In response to the rise in Texas cases, Lori Lightfoot and JB Pritzker announce that teams playing in Chicago much have no more than 25 players on the roster or pay a fine. The Cubs only then find out that David Ross no longer counts as a player and quickly recall a player from Iowa, who according to Chicago rules must quarantine for 16 days but only after 9pm. The Pirates set a modern record for consecutive losses, finally beating the White Sox on August 31 after Liam Hendriks blows a save. With a comfortable lead in the standings, Hendriks admits “He felt bad for the little nippers” and the next night the Sox win 32-3 with Leury Garcia giving up 3 runs in the 9th. The Red Sox rebuild is derailed when Chris Sale tweets a pair of scissors with the words “I don’t wear brown” in response to a nearly completed trade with the Padres. To prove he can, Trevor Bauer starts a game left handed and blindfolded, but gets turned around and throws a fastball to second base, accidentally concussing Gavin Lux. Dave Roberts starts to talk suspension post game but a large pile of money hits him in the shoulder from off screen and he just says Trevor is a unique guy and Gavin has to keep his head in the game. The Mariners surprise baseball by winning a wild card spot, and using an unheard of 17-man rotation. Eight pitchers run out of minor league options by August. The Brewers make a solid run at the playoffs before May 1, then the rest of the season is trade talk and watching Christian Yelich’s prime vanish. The Phillies do the same thing but with Bryce Harper and more anger.

Most importantly, the fans come back to the park and have fun. Except Rangers fans who are state ordered to spit in each other’s mouths before entering the park.

A Lineup’s worth of Things about the Sox that worry me, an ongoing list:

1. Nothing! The start of the season is where Hope Springs Eternal!
2. Depth. Still.
3. Eloy’s recovery being not only speedy, but that he hasn’t lost something.
4. Jake Lamb…? On Easter…? March going in like a lion and out like a Lamb? Am I destined to fall into a hole of Lamb puns?
5. The toll of learning a new position on Andrew Vaughn.
6. Zack Collins being an AZ-only hitter and the Sox relying on Jake Lamb.
7. Eloy falling out of a hospital bed.
8. Cease and Rodon get hyper in the regular season and regress to bad habits.
9. Depth. Still.
10. And warming up in the pen: Jake Lamb? Really…?

A Lineup’s worth of Things about the Sox that worry me, an ongoing list:

1. WHAT HAVE I BEEN SAYING THIS WHOLE TIME???
2. WTF HAVE I BEEN SAYING?
3. EVERY. BLOG. SINCE. I. STARTED. THIS. BIT.
4. HAVE I NOT BEEN CLEAR???
5. WAS IT TOO MUCH OF A JOKE??
6. I know…I’m supposed to be entertaining…BUT SERIOUSLY.
7. WHAT DID I SAY????
8. WHA…BUH….GAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
9. Walls and Nets vs. Eloy. (How MANY TIMES do I need to say it???).
10. And warming up in the pen: Can Andrew Vaughn, Yermin Mercedes or Zack Collins play left field without hurting themselves? Nick Williams for 6 months? A Trade?

Welp, let’s discuss the fallout, shall we??

Five to six months places us at October at the latest, and at the earliest September. Either way, you’re hoping that Eloy has enough time to heal up, get reps in at AA/AAA, and come back for a playoff run that should still happen.

To be clear, this sucks. This is a massive loss in the lineup, but the lineup is deep enough to withstand it in that they can still score a helluva lot of runs if everyone hits like they should. But, there is no one available that will hit like Eloy can hit.

And to be sure, last year the lineup suffered without him. I won’t get into the stats but there’s a prevailing wind that blows around thinking that the A’s series is different with Eloy in there. The only good news? Yoan Moncada is healthy, Edwin Encarnacion is only giving parrot rides at his local grocery store and Nomar Mazara is flailing away for the Tigers. Moncada hitting like it is 2019 helps and Adam Eaton will definitely help. Meanwhile, Andrew Vaughn will need to be as advertised, and his addition to the team now looms much, much larger.

The immediate question of who replaces Eloy is easy: Adam Engel (when he gets back). Nick Williams or Billy Hamilton if you want a veteran. Or Gavin Sheets or Luis Gonzalez among the prospects. Or, spitting at the ghost of 1986, converting catchers Zack Collins or Yermin Mercedes into left fielders.

Williams (I know, I know…I know.) is the obvious answer to start the season. Eloy will be on the 60-day IL and that opens a 40-man spot to add Williams. That’s assuming that your faithful Sox in the Basement hosts are correct and Billy Hamilton is getting a spot soon to be vacated by either Nik Turley or Jose Ruiz, that Andrew Vaughn is getting a Jace Fry 60-day IL spot, or that Seby Zavala is also on his way off the roster.

Williams is hitting above his career average this spring, which in the best of times as a Phillies regular in 2017-2918, was .269 with a .775 OPS. He’s not Eloy, but he has had some success in the majors and he’s a load better than Hamilton at this point. The trouble is statistically Williams’ success just is not much better than Nomar Mazara. Williams has had a long look this spring so clearly LaRussa likes something of what he sees. And, unlike grabbing a free agent off the streets, he’s here and has been ramping up to opening day. Williams also is a better fielder than Eloy, at least average as an outfielder, so he saves a few runs Eloy would give back. If he ends up platooning with Engel, maybe the Sox cobble together a better result than any one player would give.

Prospects are not the answer. Sheets didn’t do much in the spring, hitting .125. Luis Gonzalez has hit .154 so far. Micker Adolfo too. Blake Rutherford isn’t ready. Yoelkis Cespedes hasn’t made an appearance.

The other option is to fit a square peg in a round hole fielding wise. If I had a pick, and clearly the White Sox really don’t listen to me, this is the best route.

Eloy was a train wreck in left. A train wreck ramming into a plane crash, where the plane had crashed into a capsized cruise ship that parts of the Hindenberg landed on. As CBS (mildly) put it today, a historically bad fielder. Would Andrew Vaughn be any worse out there? Could he be? Is it possible that Yermin Mercedes or Zack Collins would be worse? Vaughn has goofed around with outfield reps in the minors and at the alternate site, and if my mind isn’t hallucinating with rage at Eloy, I recall Yermin taking an inning or two last spring training and summer camp in left. And who among baseball players hasn’t at least shagged flyballs during BP at some level? They can’t be completely hapless…right?

It has been pondered whether Zack Collins has forced his way onto the team as the backup catcher. If he has, you can choose Jonathan Lucroy over Nick Williams in the roster crunch-o-rama machine and still have Collins in the lineup more often than not. He’s not Eloy, but if he has arrived at the pedigree he was drafted at, Collins spending the year DHing and catching or playing left and catching would not be the worst thing in the world. The problem? Collins has yet to do this in the majors. He’s hit well in Arizona and in the minors, but never at the highest level.

Mercedes is another story. He’s 28, not really a prospect so much anymore and if he’s ever going to do it, now is his chance. He’ll never be the everyday catcher for the Sox, but his bat could translate to the majors; he’s a career .302 hitter in the minors with an .857 OPS and 83 homers over 617 games. He’s due for a shot at the plate, anyway, and if the Sox were willing to cringe in horror at Eloy in left, what’s the difference? Mercedes had one (1!) plate appearance last year as his only in the majors, and he walked. Giving him a few weeks (at worst until Engel gets back) feels right. It feels…good. Until you remember why it is happening and then it feels like Yermin is the creepy guy sleeping with your mom.

Adam Engel will handle the long haul of the season, and this is also his chance to cement himself as an MLB starter. His platoon splits were not bad last year, hitting .291 against righties with 2 of his 3 homers. If that’s the result of his changing his approach and growing as a hitter, he should be at least adequate at the plate and his defense will actually save a huge number of runs over what Eloy was giving back. If he’s the answer come May 1, then the Sox only need a new fourth OF and Leury Garcia/Billy Hamilton is fine as that guy.

So is there anyone outside the organization? It doesn’t make any sense to invest in a long-term OF over this injury, so going and trading for youth or a star isn’t likely. Any cuts upcoming are guys that have under performed or were never really good options, like Steven Souza (Jr.) or Jay Bruce. There’s no starters just sitting there ready to go unless you make a trade for a guy that’s about to be pushed out.

Even then, there’s few teams that have someone just sitting there unless you like Lorenzo Cain or Avi Garcia and the Brewers are willing to part with one (they might be). Avi…is still a tease. Meanwhile, Cain opted out last year and hasn’t done much in the spring. His 2019 wasn’t all that good, .260 avg. and a .697 OPS but this could be his dead cat bounce year in an attempt to get one more ring. The Mets have Mallex Smith and Kevin Pillar battling for the fourth OF spot and the right to come in and make sure Dominic Smith doesn’t cost them a game late. If the Mets somehow prefer the faster Mallex, maybe you could pry Pillar if you want. You probably don’t. Or can the Sox convince the Mariners that Mitch Haniger can be let loose so their prospects can come up and play? That scenario would be great, but Haniger has been hurt, and a lot. He’s played well this spring and projects to be the Mariners’ leadoff hitter. Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are all nipping at Haniger’s heels though, and his time there is limited.

The Eloy injury casts a pall on the season, to be sure. A more chipper fellow Sox fan noted that this could be just like the 2016 Cubs losing Kyle Schwarber for the season. I punched my phone when that text came across, but then here’s hoping for the same outcome and that Leury Garcia suddenly becomes Ben Zobrist.

Frankly, it should be 1986 all over again, or time to throw “OF” next to Andrew Vaughn’s name for the next decade. If not, all my Nick Williams love shall be requited. Which given the reason why, aggravates me in a very, very special way.

This is the time in spring training where there’s not much to talk about. This is a good problem to have. The Sox have little injury news of note (Adam Engel, Jimmy Cordero and Jace Fry are the headliners now that Yasmani Grandal is back). There are no controversies like the Yankees and Phillies wrestling with bringing back starters off the domestic abuse suspension list. There are position battles, sure, but nothing major (see below).

The regulars are set, the surprises are either fading or already discussed, and other than some hand wringing over things like Dallas Keuchel getting lit up in his first start, not much to complain about. The sample sizes are too small to mean much, so unless you have someone repeatedly under-performing all you can do is admire how far Andrew Vaughn launched a dinger off the Royals and move on. So, in the dearth of anything else, let’s talk MVP candidates for the Sox.

Now, lest you think that I will foolhardily project Luis Robert to hit 50 bombs and steal 35 bases, or Jose Abreu to win the triple crown, or Tim Anderson to hit .400…no. I’d love all those to come true, but I won’t stake my non-existent reputation on it. My Sox MVP candidate? Ethan Motherflippin’ Katz.

It breaks down like this…the Sox need to be above league average as a staff to win the whole thing. Over the past forty years, only four teams on 6 occasions have won the World Series with a below-average team ERA and WHIP (’87 Twins, ’92-’93 Jays, ’96 & ’00 Yankees, and the ’06 Cardinals). That’s only 15% of the last 39 champs that won it all without good pitching. Here, take a look:

1980 – The Phillies team ERA 3.43, team WHIP 1.317; MLB averages 3.83/1.356

1981 – The Dodgers team ERA 3.01, team WHIP 1.210; MLB averages 3.58/1.316

1982 – The Cardinals team ERA 3.37, team WHIP 1.312; MLB averages 3.85/1.345

1983 – The Orioles team ERA 3.63, team WHIP 1.310; MLB averages 3.86/1.350 (Sox were at 3.67/1.247 whilst Winnin’ Ugly)

1984 – The Tigers team ERA 3.49, team WHIP 1.262; MLB averages 3.81/1.345

1985 – The Royals team ERA 3.49, team WHIP 1.298; MLB averages 3.89/1.344

1986 – The Metropolitans team ERA 3.57, team WHIP 1.222; MLB averages 3.96/1.357

1987 – The Twins team ERA 4.63 team WHIP 1.422; MLB averages 4.28/1.391

1988 – The Dodgers team ERA 3.36, team WHIP 1.205; MLB averages 3.72/1.307

1989 – The LaRussa A’s team ERA 3.09, team WHIP 1.241; MLB averages 3.70/1.391

1990 – The Reds team ERA 3.39, team WHIP 1.292; MLB averages 3.85/1.349

1991 – The Twins team ERA 3.69, team WHIP 1.304; MLB averages 3.91/1.338

1992 – The Blue Jays team ERA 3.91, team WHIP 1.310; MLB averages 3.74/1.328

1993 – Repeat Jays team ERA 4.21, team WHIP 1.430; MLB averages 4.18/1.387

1994 – (Sad Trombone); MLB averages 4.50/1.430 – Presumptive WS Champ White Sox were at 3.96/1.326

1995 – The Braves team ERA 3.44, team WHIP 1.254; MLB averages 4.45/1.421

1996 – The Yankees team ERA 4.65, team WHIP 1.444; MLB averages 4.60/1.440

1997 – The Fish team ERA 3.83, team WHIP 1.337; MLB averages 4.38/1.412

1998 – The Yanks team ERA 3.82, team WHIP 1.251; MLB averages 4.42/1.403

1999 – The Yanks team ERA 4.13, team WHIP 1.337; MLB averages 4.70/1.463

2000 – Ugh Yankees team ERA 4.76, team WHIP 1.429; MLB averages 4.76/1.468

2001 – The DBacks team ERA 3.87, team WHIP 1.242; MLB averages 4.41/1.379

2002 – The Angels team ERA 3.69, team WHIP 1.227; MLB averages 4.27/1.376

2003 – The Marlins team ERA 4.03, team WHIP 1.306; MLB averages 4.39/1.383

2004 – The Carmines team ERA 4.18, team WHIP 1.293; MLB averages 4.46/1.400

2005 – WHITE SOX!!! team ERA 3.98, team WHIP 1.254; MLB averages 4.28/1.369

2006 – The Cards team ERA 4.54, team WHIP 1.384; MLB averages 4.52/1.408

2007 – The BoSox team ERA 3.87, team WHIP 1.273; MLB averages 4.46/1.406

2008 – The Phillies team ERA 3.88, team WHIP 1.364; MLB averages 4.32/1.391

2009 – The Yankees team ERA 4.26, team WHIP 1.352; MLB averages 4.31/1.390

2010 – The Giants team ERA 3.36, team WHIP 1.271; MLB averages 4.07/1.347

2011 – The Cardinals team ERA 3.74, team WHIP 1.306; MLB averages 3.94/1.316

2012 – The Giants team ERA 3.68, team WHIP 1.275; MLB averages 4.01/1.309

2013 – The Red Sox team ERA 3.79, team WHIP 1.300; MLB averages 3.86/1.300

2014 – The Giants(!) team ERA 3.50, team WHIP 1.169; MLB averages 3.74/1.275

2015 – The Royals team ERA 3.73, team WHIP 1.282; MLB averages 3.95/1.294

2016 – The Cubs team ERA 3.15, team WHIP 1.110; MLB averages 4.18/1.325

2017 – The ‘Stros team ERA 4.12, team WHIP 1.270; MLB averages 4.35/1.342

2018 – The Carmines team ERA 3.75, team WHIP 1.246; MLB averages 4.14/1.304

2019 – The Gnats team ERA 4.27, team WHIP 1.290; MLB averages 4.49/1.334

2020 – The Dodgers team ERA 3.02, team WHIP 1.056; MLB averages 4.44/1.327

You’ll notice that whilst the below-average teams were right near the league average, a great number of the winners were around half an earned run better than average. Starting in 1993, when the league pitching averages were significantly worse (hmmm…wonder why…can’t put a needle on that) only the 2006 Cardinals were worse than average, and that team is considered to be an all-time anomaly as one of the weakest winners ever (83-79).

Ah, but you say, what of hitting? The 2005 White Sox were below league average in runs per game, average, and OPS. Their saving grace was not striking out much and hitting 200 taters. Also, they were the embodiment of the Hawkism “don’t tell me what you hit, tell me when you hit ’em”.

The ’87 Twins were similar to the 2005 Sox. The Giants and Cardinals both won series with below average hitting that hit few homers and struck out an average amount. On the flip, the 2018 Red Sox were one of the best hitting teams in the league in addition to pitching well. Hitting is less of an indicator than pitching in terms of where a team lands. Hell, in 2005 The Cubs had 80 fewer K’s, a higher average and OPS, hit only 6 fewer home runs than the Sox and finished under .500 and missed the playoffs. Their pitching? A half-run higher ERA and .1 higher WHIP.

Now, it is true that the White Sox were better than average in 2020, but it is hard to make that short sample a definitive carryover to a full 162. The team had a 3.81 ERA and a 1.262 WHIP in 2020; those numbers were in spite of having a lower than league average K/9 and a higher than league average BB/9. The ERA, at least, was buoyed by Dallas Keuchel’s 1.99 and Alex Colome’s 0.81 over a combined 86.2 of the team’s total 527 innings. If they are closer to their career averages of 3.59 and 2.95 respectively, 47 more earned runs are tacked on and the team ERA jumps to 4.61…below average. WHIP would rise too, presuming that those runs came from added hits and walks and perhaps fewer K’s, but I’m not talented enough to make that number happen.

In 2019, granted with some now-departed bad pitchers on the staff, the Sox pitchers as a team were worse than league average in every way. Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel are better than Ivan Nova and Ross Detwiler/Manny Banuelos. However, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez and Carlos Rodon are still here and expected to contribute to the rotation. The bullpen now has Liam Hendricks, but otherwise there’s a carryover from 2019 in the form of Aaron Bummer, Jace Fry, Evan Marshall, and Jose Ruiz (Jimmy Cordero too, but he’s done for the year). Some of the new changes are Garrett Crochet and Michael Kopech, both whom are a guess over the full year. Codi Heuer and Matt Foster are still unknowns after having arrived last year for relatively short stints.

So it falls to Katz. He has to get in the ear of Dylan Cease, Carlos Rodon and others who were on the failed 2019 team and under performed the league average in 2020. He has to keep the veterans on their career numbers, at least. He has to take guys like Lucas Giolito, Aaron Bummer and Evan Marshall to the next level. He needs his staff to walk fewer batters. He needs to juggle the depth that is there because there’s no saying that the market will have anything at the deadline. Meeting those challenges, more than anything, will be the MVP-level job that takes the Sox all the way.

Loose threads and Spring Training Thoughts

I noted up above that there are few position battles, a good thing. Last year heading into spring there were questions about CF, RF, 3-5 in the rotation, and half the bullpen, and the competition was about someone stepping up to fill those positions. This year, there was DH (in theory), backup C, starter 5 and a couple pen spots, with the question being who loses rather than who wins. If you plan on being a playoff team, that’s pretty important.

So here’s where we stand after the weekend:

DH: Vaughn unless there are service time shenanigans. If there are, Zack Collins seemingly is next up.

Backup C: There’s starting to be a divergence of opinion. The rumbles are growing louder that Zack Collins has earned the job, while some say that he should get regular at-bats in the minors/alternate site. Yermin Mercedes has hit well, but so has Jonathan Lucroy. Lucroy fits that crusty veteran backup catcher mold better than Mercedes or Collins and it still feels like Lucroy’s to lose.

Fifth starter: Katz’ Mechanix Magix is now 2-1 on the spring. Reynaldo Lopez is either tipping pitches or his stuff has regressed to being too hittable. He needs to figure it out at Charlotte and not endanger the big clubs’ games. Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon have been pretty untouchable, and Rodon it seems will be the fifth starter. As noted on the show, he has adopted Katz’ recommendations about engaging more of his lower body into his delivery. The result has been a fastball with drive and carry, as opposed to a heater that is flung in the general direction of the plate. Last year, you’d see Rodon throw a high fastball with velocity but it would hang there waiting to be hit. This spring, the fastball he has thrown looks like it is still digging as it hits the mitt, with the difference being that Rodon’s mechanics are fuller-body driven, using his legs and core to drive his arm and not having his arm do all the work. Rodon might have a Rich Hill-esque career resurgence if he can use his fastball as an out pitch and let the slider irritate hitters into watching it cross the plate or whiffing on it.

Bullpen: There are six guys that are locks for the bullpen: Liam Hendriks, Evan Marshall, Aaron Bummer, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet and Codi Heuer. There are a couple two-three spots open depending on how much of a bench Tony wants, but assuming that there are two spots open, Matt Foster is still vying for his, with Alex McRae looking like maybe he has one (he doesn’t). Reynaldo was thought to be in the pen as long relief, but back-to-back bad outings make that harder to believe. McRae has a 1.04 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 8.2 innings, and was with the team last year for a bit. Others of note are Tayron Guerrero, who has a low 1.80 ERA and 6 K’s in 5 innings, but a 2.20 WHIP from 6 hits and 5 BB’s; and Felix Paulino who has 6 K’s in 4 innings.

New position battles opening up:

Fourth OF: Adam Engel will be on the shelf for a bit. NRI Nick Williams is hitting .308 with an .872 OPS. Luis Gonzalez is hitting…he really isn’t hitting. Gonzalez is the better glove but Williams might be the better overall addition. Billy Hamilton was just signed, the thought being that he is the wheels on the bench for extra innings, but he hasn’t hit much in years although he can man center in a pinch.

There is one caveat on all of the roster battles that might come into play: the 40-Man Roster (dun dun duuuhhhhh). Andrew Vaughn, Billy Hamilton, Nick Williams, Alex McRae, Felix Paulino, and Jonathan Lucroy are all non-roster invitees and would need to be on the 40-man if they make the team. Vaughn is a lock, and probably takes Jimmy Cordero’s spot now that he’s on the 60-day IL. If that belongs to newly signed Nik Turkey, consider him gone off the 40 if he doesn’t make the team. Jace Fry doesn’t seem destined for the 60-day, and neither does Adam Engel, so it’ll take some cuts.

So how many guys can you release? Jose Ruiz, assuming he doesn’t make the team (and he shouldn’t), is one guy that should slide through waivers or just go away. Danny Mendick isn’t doing much, but is a guy that you might want to keep on the 40-man so you can shuttle him back and forth if needed. Seby Zavala becomes interesting as a cut, since he hasn’t hit well this spring and seemingly is 5th or 6th on the depth chart at catcher. But of guys that maybe aren’t making it, Mercedes, Rutherford, Lambert, Burdi, Flores (Jr.), Sheets, Burger, Adolfo, Stiever, Johnson and Foster are all names that the Sox will want to protect.

That leaves only two 40-man spots open, with the rest being waiver risks the Sox may not want to take. Rutherford is a guy on the bubble, as he is behind Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Micker Adolfo and soon Yoelkis Cespedes in terms of making the big club. Lopez too, really, as he’s pretty lost right now. But those would be surprising cuts.

So re-racking the position battles based on the roster crunch:

DH: Vaugh. Someone’s spot is his, even if he gets sent down to start he’ll be added to the 40-man this year. Ruiz could be dumped for him.

Backup C: Collins over Lucroy. LaRussa would need to invent ABs for Collins, which might mean platooning the DH position or catcher to a degree. There’s some suggestion out there that trading Collins now when he is hot would bring back value. But for what? The Sox could use a bullpen arm, but Collins is too valuable to trade for just bullpen help for now. Available starters right now are going to be either surplus veterans or dart throws. Besides, if he has arrived, remember that Grandal is 32 and catchers don’t age well. Collins could Vader him in a year, as Grandal needs more time off behind the plate and a McCann situation develops.

Fifth Starter: Samsies as above. Rodon is on the roster, as are his backups (Stiever, Flores Jr., and Lopez).

Bullpen: Someone… and Foster. This takes up one spot if any remaining NRI takes it (buh bye Turley). When Jace Fry is ready, he could topple one of them out of here but that’s not a given. Foster hasn’t pitched well but should be given a short leash. Ruiz (ugh) could still grab a spot here, or Turley, leaving no spot for Lucroy, Hamilton or Williams.

Fourth OF: Williams (see you later, Seby). I’m not just stanning the guy, either. Hamilton might or might not catch on elsewhere if he doesn’t make the team, and he could stay in AAA for now if no one else takes him on (and he wasn’t a hot commodity). Williams may be playing himself into consideration for other teams. He could be a factor for the Sox beyond 2021 as he looks like insurance against Adam Eaton resuming his injury history, and none of the Sox young OFs look ready. If they keep a bullpen NRI (86 Turley) and Lucroy (86 Zavala), it would likely mean Engel is coming back quick and they make due with Leury as the lone backup for a week or so.

Alternatives are that Turley stays on with Foster, so you could have the Sox add both Hamilton (Ruiz) and Williams (Zavala) to start the season, then waiving one of these two if they aren’t playing well when Vaughn arrives. If they keep Lucroy (Ruiz) and send Vaughn down, Collins could DH to start and Hamilton (or Williams) takes Engel’s spot (Zavala) until Engel is ready, leaving room for an NRI in the bullpen (Turley), waiving Rutherford for Vaughn, or Hamilton/Williams/pensman if they aren’t performing.

A Lineup’s worth of Things about the Sox that worry me, an ongoing list:

1. Depth.
2. Depth.
3. I still see Jose Ruiz on the 40-man.
4. Nothing! Spring Training is where Hope Springs Eternal!
5. That I will someday meet Nick Williams. Don’t meet your heroes.
6. That I like Zack Collins to be on the team. I was a hater.
7. Walls and Nets and prank calls vs. Eloy. (TA’s busy. Dude.).
8. Reynaldo Lopez might be broken beyond repair, but will make appearances for the Sox.
9. Depth. Still.
10. And warming up in the pen: a Don Cooper curse.

WE’RE BACK, BABY!!!

Back in the ballpark. Taken out to the ballgame. With the crowds. Buy me some peanuts and PPE…I sure hope there’s no Covid for me…

There won’t be. We can and will do this safely and give the White Sox the cheers and reactions that they richly deserve in person. And I’m guessing that someone will yell something inappropriate in earshot of the TV mics. With any luck, that someone could be you.

By now we know that to start off anyway only 20% capacity, around 8,000 fans, will be allowed in. Season ticket holders have first dibs, without the need for lawnchairs and kids’ toys. We know that you’ll buy “pods” of seats, in effect buying a bank of seats separated from other fans. We know that you’ll be limited to where you can go in the ballpark, generally being kept to the concourse section closest to you. And we know that Sox fans drink the most per capita. Let’s roll out what to do and do not (there is no try) as fan in the Covid-19 protocol world of the 2021 Season:

Do:

• Show up to the park as early as allowed. You won’t have the traffic snarls and parking fun of prior seasons, but with cars being kept spaced and lines being kept spaced, getting in is likely to be slower than you remember.
• Wear the mask. Yeah, you’re outside and blah blah blah but you will be interacting with park staff and other people who may or may not be susceptible to Covid or carrying it. Besides, you can eat all the wonderful grilled onions you want and no one will know.
• Thank the staff. I bet any number of them aren’t going to be vaccinated given how slow the city and Cook County rollouts have been. That first weekend in April will probably just have started 1B+ through the city and county. These are people who probably had no jobs the last 12 months, especially if they work G-Rate/Wrigley in the summer and Soldier Field/UC/Allstate Arena in the winter. They also aren’t setting policy and they aren’t getting paid enough to put up with your garbage in the best of times. Be extra nice.
• Spend. We know the team will raise payroll only if they raise revenue. Eat, drink, buy merch. The rest of us that aren’t getting in are counting on you to make Jerry smile, to the extent that he physically can.
• Be aware of who is around you. Normally kids can be shielded from lousy behavior by the sheer crowd level and ambient noise, but in an empty park voices carry. Be creative with your taunts, don’t just go crass and foul right from the jump. You want to get under Adam Eaton’s skin? Tell him Guaranteed Rate can help with his mortgage, don’t just tell him to go, uhhh, that is, where he can, ummm, fornicate within.
• Be a happy drunk. If you’re going to drink (statistically you and every fan in attendance will be, even the infants), at least be jovial. These are happy times in Sox fandom!!
• Let the other team have it. They can hear you. Just, again, be creative and clean.
• Savor it. What was lost is again found.

Do not:

• Be a jackass on the secondary market. Yes, someone will buy your seats at a very, very marked up price because they are scarce and we all want in. But be a little reasonable. You can get a new boat off the playoff seats.
• Go to the game just to complain about the restrictions at the game. Sure, it’s not what we want. But while the restrictions will be released eventually, you’ll still be labeled as whiny. Enjoy what you have.
• Fight. Not that it should happen to begin with, but there’s no reason for it if everyone is separated anyway. Hurl insults back and forth if you must, but keep your distance. Getting into people’s space will just make them shut it down again.
• Puke. I cannot stress this enough, but after a year of worry about invisible spit droplets, no one needs to deal with your open and obvious hurl. Spew in the comfort of your own home.
• Give fans of the opposing team any crap. Not yet anyway. If a Royals fan gets in opening weekend, they clearly paid gobs of dough to get in there and their money is supporting Lucas Giolito’s and Andrew Vaughn’s forthcoming (I hope) extensions.
• Be that guy who tries to get one over on the staff. Yeah, sure, you’ve sat on the 100 level when you only had 500 level seats, or got into the club level when you didn’t belong, or ended up pitching 1.2 innings during a blowout because Ricky Renteria thought you were Alex McRae. But trying to get into parts of the park that are restricted is a good way to get this blown up and shut down.
• Kiss a stranger during the Kiss Cam. Not ok. Especially not now. Even with a mask. Unless you’re paying said stranger as, shall we say, an escort of a certain type where that is understood to be part of the package.
• On second thought, don’t do that either.
• Be on your phone the whole game. If you’re lucky enough to be there, be there. Be present in the moment. Always must have the deepest commitment, the most serious mind. This one a long time have I watched. All his life has he looked away… to the future, to the horizon. Never his mind on where he was. Hmm? What he was doing. Hmph! Adventure. Heh! Excitement. Heh! On the field it is…?
• Tell me the odds. Never tell me the odds.

Spring Observations

Looking at the past week, my opinions that you are free to disagree with:

Ethan Katz, Mechanix Wiz is 3-0. Dylan Cease looked really damn good in his first start. He only struck out two over the three innings, but he was around the zone. Most importantly, his pitches stayed on the corners and he got lousy contact from the Cubs. Last two years, Cease would have those pitches drift over the heart of the plate and get whacked somewhere. The lazy flyballs and jam-shot grounders are almost a better sign than strikeouts. On Katz’ other two projects, Carlos Rodón looked solid in his one outing, Reynaldo Lopez struggled in his second but immediately knew what went wrong. The fact that Lopez, once accused of not knowing he was pitching in a game that he had already started, understood immediately that he was tipping pitches means that Katz reached his head and his arm.

Zack Collins is seemingly making me eat my own, uhhh, internal leftovers. He’s hitting .375 with a 1.063 OPS. I’d say he’s arrived…but his career spring numbers are .311 with a 1.025 OPS.

Speaking of the backstop backups, since Yermin Mercedes is only hitting .278 with a .760 OPS, the job is still Jonathan Lucroy’s to lose. Unless Yasmani Grandal starts the season on IL, I’d think that it’ll be Yas and Jonny behind the plate come April 1. If Yas can’t catch, I’d expect Collins to get one last shot to start the season.

If you’ve been reading, and you should be because illiteracy is good for no one, then you may recall that I noted the regulars were getting outhit by the NRI crowd. Never fear, we’ve achieved normalcy as the only regulars hitting at or below the Mendoza line are Jose Abreu, who garners no concern that he’ll be ready, and Grandal, who has been hurt. TA is hitting .231 but like Abreu, not really a worry. Robert: .333/.943 OPS; Eloy: .276/.792; Eaton: .278/.836; Moncada: .308/.842. Madrigal is still hurt as well, 0-2 on the spring, but his likely lineup replacement Leury Garcia is hitting .348 with an 1.073 OPS. The prospects and veteran NRIs just aren’t doing much with the chances they’ve been given, so there shouldn’t be any roster surprises.

Meanwhile, the DH derby is a two-horse race. There should still be concern about Andrew Vaughn making the leap from 55 games at no higher than A-ball, but he’s hitting .321 with a .905 OPS, 6 strikeouts with 6 walks to match. The other horse is Zack Collins. Oy…there should be concerns that his spring stat line matches past springs and there’s history in the show that shows that he doesn’t show well. Small sample for Collins as that’s only 36 games over 2 seasons, but 44 strikeouts in 102 MLB ABs is a frightening total for a guy with only 3 homers in that span. No one else has really stepped up though, so if there’s service time considerations at play Collins is the guy.

By the way, the Andrew Vaughn service time manipulation “out” for Rick Hahn? Grandal’s knee knews. If he’s not comfortable catching he’ll be the opening day DH, where he’ll stay with stints at first for a couple weeks.

Evan Marshall has 10 Ks in 4.2 innings. I just like writing that. Oh, and Michael Kopech is really scary coming out of the pen. Imagine you’re down by 3 runs going into the 7th inning and you have to face any three of Kopech, Garret Crochet, Marshall, Aaron Bummer and then Liam Hendriks. Remember how the 2005 team basically won with Cliff Politte, Neal Cotts, the remnants of Dustin Hermanson’s back and then Bobby Jenks? This is way better.

For those wondering why the rotation is Giolito-Kuechel-Lynn, think series-to-series. That’s power righty, crafty lefty, power righty. Next series is presumably power righty (Cease), lefty (I’m assuming Rodón), power righty (Giolito). Then lefty, righty, righty, but you can skip Cease for Rodón. More importantly, it is a preview of the first three games of a playoff series, where Kuechel breaking up Lynn and Giolito makes sense. This is in spite of the possibility that at the end of the year, the Sox’ rotation might be ranked 1.) Giolito 2.) Lynn 3.) Cease 4.) Kuechel 5.) Rodón/Lopez/whoever.

A Lineup’s worth of Things about the Sox that worry me, an ongoing list:

1. Nothing! Spring Training is where Hope Springs Eternal!
2. If the Arizona air can make Zack Collins look good, is it inflating Andrew Vaughn?
3. That I watched Nick Madrigal corkscrew himself to ground out to third and haven’t seen him since.
4. Liam Hendriks blew a save? Is Westview falling apart?
5. Carlos Rodón is taking the 5th starter role after 1 outing.
6. I know they don’t count but it hasn’t even been a “good” 3-8.
7. Walls and Nets vs. Eloy. (Don’t even clown about it).
8. Extensions are starting to loom larger. Giolito, Vaughn and Lynn would be nice to lock down, even though two of them haven’t made a regular season appearance yet.
9. I didn’t say Nick Williams’ name anywhere. Or did I..?
10. And warming up in the pen: Yasmani’s right knee is Darth Vader…twisted and evil.

With multiple spring games under the collectively strained belts of the fandom, and more importantly the sleek and well-fitting belts of the White Sox as a team, it is time to look back at what had us worried in the start of the off-season, and whether the concerns have been quelled or not. Sure, it’s early, but we demand immediate satisfaction. So hath we the satisfaction? What hath Rick Hahn wrought?

GAHHH!!! WE NEED A DH!!!

Yes, yes we did. Edwin Encarnacion went from aging slugger with a parrot gimmick to just a parrot gimmick. But wait!! In the off-season there would be new veteran hitters, and when Eddie Rosario and Kyle Schwarber were non-tendered, the optimism abounded that a lefty tater whacker was coming to the Southside.

So did Rick fix it? No. Not directly. The Sox had decided internally that Andrew Vaughn was ready in spite of the 55 games total at A-Ball and the practices in Schaumburg being his only experience. And thus far, they look right. Vaughn has been among the best hitters so far this spring and has the approval of Jose Abreu. I’ll argue with the front office, but I will not argue with Abreu. Vaughn will need to work on “his defense” or “some stuff” at the alternate site to play the service time shuffle, but hopefully he’s there Day 1.

RIGHT FIELD IS A SWIRLING BLACK HOLE

Yes, yes it was. Nomar Mazara was a fair gamble last year but since Adam Eaton was traded this position has been a pit.

So did Rick fix it? Sure. Adam Eaton is back, a bargain and he is still a bona-fide major league starting right fielder, albeit one who briefly gave himself clown shoes in his first stint with the team. This is not that ill-fated Sox team, and thus far Eaton has been quiet and doing his job. He might only be a rental but that depends on Gavin Sheets, Yoelkis Cespedes and Micker Adolfo…and Adam Engel. And they are why Rick was right to not commit a long-term deal to the likes of George Springer. In reverse order you have a rapidly improving major-league outfielder with a great glove and a bat that will play a big role in 2021 if he keeps going; a top prospect in the system and a guy that without injury was talked about as emerging with Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal; the top international prospect from this year’s signing pool who has the tools to be a stud; and another top prospect that represents the missing lefty thunder in the lineup. It’s a good bet that one of those four grabs the brass ring in 2022, or else Adam Eaton gets his option picked up for a farewell tour. In the meantime, Eaton is a better fielder than Rosario and Schwarber, and his bat will complement the rest of the lineup well.

MORE STARTING PITCHING!! FINISH THE TOP 3!!

No kidding. After Lucas Giolito and Dallas Kuechel, last year’s rotation wasn’t pretty. The nail in the coffin was Dane Dunning getting a quick hook in the playoffs, but the slump leading to Oakland was pretty damning too. It felt like everyone with an arm had a shot and no one wanted to perform up to replacement-level standards.

So did Rick fix it? Boy howdy, did he. Lance Lynn was a premium arm in 2019 and 2020 and should eat innings and batters for the Sox in 2021 as well. Some argued that Dane Dunning was to high a price, but then Lynn was cheaper money and player-wise than Yu Darvish and Blake Snell on the trade market and well below guys like Trevor Bauer cost-wise. Plus, Rick may do the team a disservice by committing long-term high-priced dollars.

Why? Well…

MORE STARTING PITCHING!! FIX THE BACKEND!!

Deja vu alert: After Lucas Giolito and Dallas Kuechel, last year’s rotation wasn’t pretty. The nail in the coffin was Dane Dunning getting a quick hook in the playoffs, but the slump leading to Oakland was pretty damning.

So did Rick fix it? Nope, unless you credit him for Ethan Katz. And re-signing Carlos Rodon, I guess. Dylan Cease was called a Cy Young candidate by Yasmani Grandal. Jonathan Lucroy said his stuff is devastating. Cease’s big bugaboo last year and prior was that his pitches moved in ways he didn’t want, causing excessive balls, excessively hittable strikes, and excessive pants-stooling when he was on the mound. Enter Ethan Katz, who re-worked Giolito’s mechanics before the 2019 season and turned him into an ace after being the worst starter in the MLB in 2018. Katz got into Cease’s brainpan and clicked a switch about where he strides, apparently causing vertical movement instead of horizontal movement, and resulting better control. Cease hasn’t been in a game yet, so we’ll see what he does against human batters. Meanwhile, Katz convinced Reynaldo “You Know You’re Pitching Right Now, Yeah?” Lopez to compact his arm swing the way Giolito started to in 2019, adding deception to the power, and Lopez looks more like the 2018 rotation piece than the 2019-2020 headcase after his first two clean innings and some good BP sessions. Allegedly there are also talks about Rodon not just stepping down and using only his glass arm to pitch, and some dude named Michael Kopech is back or something and re-discovered his love for the game. And his 100+mph heater. Basically, Rick might have been right to let the young guys get sorted out. And there will be guys available at the trade deadline.

Noooo….don’t let McCann go!!!

The legend James McCann was once grabbed by the Sox off the scrap heap, a failed backup catcher for the Tigers. That’s low. In the next two seasons he became an All-Star, and then as a free agent became the Mets’ starting C for the next few years. That’s not low. Sox fans were convinced that he was the Giolito whisperer and actually questioned signing Yasmani Grandal. Yikes. But merit to McCann, he did catch Giolito and others on the team really well, and that could be important. Plus the guy started hitting better than he ever had, hence the 2019 All-Star bid.

So, did Rick fix it? Seemingly. Backup catchers are easy to find. Chris Widger was playing softball. McCann got more money than he probably should have so resigning him was not in the cards. Jonathan Lucroy is on a minor-league deal, fixed the neck issue that faded his career from All-Star to Journeyman, and was already raved about and nicknamed by Lucas Giolito. Yermin Mercedes also caught Giolito the other day and did well. Both guys are hitting this spring. Zack Collins is too, but really he’s going to play everyday in Charlotte. But if Lucroy hits like he did as an All-Star and Giolito likes throwing to him…I guess you McCann replace James easily. Sorry…

CLOSING TIME

This wasn’t as hot an area of need but knowing that Alex Colome was a free agent, signing a veteran closer was better than trying out the rest of the bullpen. No knock on guys like Evan Marshall and Aaron Bummer, but when you can get a guy that has been there, saved that…ya do it. Plus that means that the rest of the bullpen can be awesomer earlier in the game. Would it be Alex again, who was pitching beyond his stuff in 2020? Brad Hand, the Indians non-tendered AL saves leader? The bounceback of Trevor Rosenthal or the soon to bounceback Kirby Yates? Or…who????

So, did Rick fix it? Yes. Yes he did. One might say he hit it out of the park.

Observations from the weekend

There’s a great divide between the pitchers that are projected to be on the roster and those that aren’t. It’s early and the innings are few, but the Sox regulars have ERAs between 0.00 and 1.80, most of the minors and NRIs have ERAs of 9.00 and up. The two who don’t through Monday? Bernardo Flores, Jr., who may factor into the big club, and Kade McClure. You may remember him from .1 innings in 2020.

Through Monday, the Sox regulars at the plate are having the opposite luck of the pitchers, as they are being outhit by the likes of Nick Williams, Jonathan Lucroy, and Yermin Mercedes. Except Luis Robert, who at .429 is doing just fine, thanks. The rest of the starting nine is hanging around the Mendoza. That’ll change of course.

The team is not learning how to win based on the results.

Only Yasmani Grandal and Tim Beckham have yet to take an AB, while Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer, Liam Hendriks, Matt Foster, Carlos Rodón, and Jimmy Lambert have yet to record an inning. If you’re a big fan of pitchers you don’t really know much about, they’ll be done with their showcase soon and we’ll get a better feel for who will make up the staff as the Sox are clearly beginning some pitchers along slowly.

Ethan Katz’ mechanics magic is 1 for 1. Reynaldo Lopez looked good.

A Lineup’s worth of Things about the Sox that worry me, an ongoing list:

1. They’ll monkey with Vaughn’s service time.
2. Yermin Mercedes should be on the team but there’s no room.
3. I still see Jose Ruiz in the Box Score.
4. Walls and Nets and evidently Luis Robert vs. Eloy. (Stop running into things and people. Dude.).
5. Nothing! Spring Training is where Hope Springs Eternal!
6. PECOTA knows something we don’t
7. How twisted is Grandal’s knee, anyway?
8. Crochet or Kopech killing someone with a fastball. That’s at least a suspension, right?
9. That I watched Nick Madrigal corkscrew himself to ground out to third.
10. And warming up in the pen: Chris thinks Lori Lightfoot backed down because I’d him. And I get to hear about it…

PECOTA put the White Sox at 3rd in the AL Central behind The Twins and The Cleveland Baseball Assemblage. The projections say no playoffs. Meanwhile, the Angels of Anaheim in Orange County near Los Angeles in California but not by Sacramento or Phoenix which isn’t in California are predicted to finish second in the AL West behind the Houston Astros. The Angels have a guaranteed (legit) Hall of Fame player (baseball guy) in Mike Trout, and through spectacular mismanagement have never really given the guy a shot at the title in his 20’s, and the dude gets his third decade badge this year. Previously we looked at the Nomadic Jays, The Cleveland Baseball Assemblage, the St. Paul-adjacent Twins, the not-supergroup Damn Yankees, and the formerly deviled Rays, all showing that the Sox have better talent at enough positions that they should beat out the Cleveland Baseball Assemblage easily and do no worse hang evenly with the Twins in the AL Central, whilst being better setup overall than the predictably unpredictable Rays, the oddly-rotationed Yankees and the still-building Jays. Still to come we’ll see how the Southsiders stack up against the Oakland A’s, being among the top…ummm…ya know what? Let’s toss the A’s on today’s pile too. The A’s are a perennially flawed overachiever that has to drive Mike Trout nuts, because the A’s with Trout are a complete meal and separately both teams have gaping wounds that will probably hold them back. So without further ado, PECOTA you’ll be needing two dozen eggs this week and let’s see why the White Sox are better than the runners up to the Astros.

I should note that the A’s are the Angels’ demons, as is their poor roster-building.

Ranking the top of the AL alphabet soup and the White Sox by position:

Rotation: White Sox over A’s over Angels. The A’s have a top three of the underrated Chris Bassitt, the up and coming Jesús Luzardo, and…then it falls off to Sean “Looking to rediscover his ____” Manaea, the PED wonderment of Frankie Montas, and Mike Fiers. The Angels have nothing but questions in their rotation. Griffin Canning and Shohei Otani are still just hype and hope at this point, Dylan Bundy’s small sample of sweet release from Baltimore needs to be proven beyond 2020, the same for Alex Cobb, and Andrew Heaney is a mid-rotation guy with health issues, while Jose Quintana has to prove that he is not declining the way he appeared to be with the Cubs. Both rotations are 1-5 basically what the Sox have at the back end, with Chris Bassitt. Very, very easily the White Sox.

Bullpen: White Sox over A’s over Macho Grande (which I’ll never get over) over the Angels. If you’ve been reading this, I’m pretty much sticking the Sox bullpen towards the top of the MLB at an elite level. A big part of that is Liam Hendriks, whose arrival on the Sox weakened the A’s pen. The A’s grabbed Trevor Rosenthal, who had a bounce-back 2020, and beyond that it’s their usual smoke and mirrors. The Angels traded for the mercurial Raisel Iglesias and beyond that have Ty Buttrey, whose name is either “buttery” or “butt tree”. The great beyonds for these two teams are more like bottomless voids. Maybe they’ll find Ozzie Smith? Big winner: White Sox.

Outfield: White Sox over Angels over A’s. Mike Trout is what Luis Robert is measured by. The Angels went veteran with the remains of Justin Upton and Dexter Fowler, while the A’s have Laser Ramon Laureano and remains that formed Stephen Piscotty and Mark Canha. The Angels have top prospects Jo Adell, who will be better than 2020, and Brandon Marsh waiting in the wings should Fowler or Upton fall and not get up. The A’s always find a guy, but they are starting with a utility guy and a fourth OF instead of the dead-cat bounce of two fading stars. Eloy is a star and Adam Eaton is better than anything in these two outfields not named for a fish. Mike Trout aside, it’s a Sox winner.

Shortstop: White Sox over A’s/Angels. Marcus Semien is a Blue Jay, Andrelton Simmons is a Twin. The A’s are trying to resurrect Elvis Andrus fading career and the Angels are going with glovable journeyman José Iglesias. Tim Anderson might be Rickey Henderson, according the Meatball version of Chris Lanuti. Sox by a wide margin.

Third Base: Pick ’em. Yoán Moncada is a stud. Anthony Rendon is a stud. Matt Chapman is a stud. Chapman and Rendon have more power, Moncada has a better all around offensive game than Chapman but Rendon is right there, with less speed. Looking deeper at advanced metrics or trying to call it by narrow margins is all you’d really have, and in the end these are three of the top five 3B in the AL and all three in the conversation in baseball.

Second Base: Angels and White Sox pick ’em over easy over the A’s. David Fletcher and Nick Madrigal are very similar in profile, a lot of batting average with no power and the need to run. Fletcher is established, Madrigal might prove to be better, but as we sit here they are really projected to be similar guys. I think by midseason it’ll be Madrigal. The A’s are choosing between Tony Kemp (yecch) Chad Pinder (west coast Leury Garcia) and the reanimated corpse of Jed Lowrie. It’s so bad that when Nate Orf retired, they lost a possible starter. If that made no sense to you, I say: exactly.

First Base: White Sox over A’s over Angels. MVPito! Matt Olson is a very good first baseman and younger than Abreu, but really a three-true-outcomes guy whereas Jose is an all-around threat. At this point, Albert Pujols is an albatross contract and representative of how the Angels failed Trout, by adding a superstar and ignoring the other 23-24 positions on the field. Jared Walsh is intriguing as a late bloomer, but that’s hardly a match for Olson or Abreu. Sox win!

Catcher: White Sox over the A’s over the Angels. Kurt Suzuki and Max Stassi are two backups masquerading as starters. Sean Murphy hasn’t been as good as thought, but there’s still time and his backup is likely Yasmani Grandal acolyte Aramis Garcia. Yas and what I assume is Jonathan Lucroy are entirely another level. This is easy, even if Murphy arrives. Sox.

DH: Sox over A’s over Angels. I wanted Mitch Moreland here. I wanted him as the Sox DH to let Andrew Vaughn get some game action. But I saw him taking advantage of G-Rate Field and a monster lineup to be league average at minimum. In Oakland, he might suffer from the hit-swallowing home park effect that killed him with the Padres. Shohei Otani is not a better hitter than Andrew Vaughn. I think Vaughn is the better bet between the three, maybe only by a bit.

Position by position, the White Sox have the better rotation, bullpen, outfield, first baseman, shortstop, DH, and catcher, but are narrowly tied at second base and legit tied at third. The A’s always seem to show up bigger than expected, but the Angels seem like they’ll waste another year of The Trout.

Without delving deep into analytics, PECOTA projecting the Angels to finish higher in their division and with more wins than the Sox is laughable. PECOTA wasn’t as kind to the A’s and the Sox should take them easily too. So, PECOTA…that’s a lot of eggs you’ve sucked. Need a bucket?

NEWS YOU CAN USE: WHITE SOX FANS REPORTED AS DRINKING THE MOST AT GAMES, AVERAGING 4.2 ADULT BEVERAGES PER GAME WHILST BEING THIRD IN PRE-GAMING AND FIRST IN MOST LIKELY TO DRUNKENLY MISS GAME ACTION

Thus spake The Stork: What the hell are we supposed to do, ya moron?

After all, we can still remember Rob Mackowiak playing center field and just ended a 12-year playoff drought. Droughts make people thirsty. The Study is here.

Spring Training Observations, Week 1

Random thoughts and opinions:

The shortened games suck. Andrew Vaughn can hit but expect struggles. Two of my bullpen NRIs to watch have defecated on their sleeping platforms, but anyone expected to contribute this year has been as expected, so the NRIs aren’t important. Kade McClure has a shot? Jake Burger is a nice story but AA/AAA awaits. Zack Collins had a good game on Wednesday and Thursday but realistically unless you see him take innings at first, third or the outfield he’s going to Charlotte and will get called up when he can play everyday. Jonathan Lucroy getting called ‘Luc in a rave review by Luc Giolito is all you need to know about the backup catcher battle. Also, I didn’t know that Lucroy had a neck issue from 2016-2019; bet his bat comes back. If Yermin Mercedes shows up in games at first, third or OF then Andrew Vaughn will magically need two weeks or so at the alternate site. My NRI pick Nick Williams is still in play as your day 1 DH for that “Vaughn needing to sort some things out” reason too.